Media ownership: Breaking the news
Also: The Netherlands, Gibraltar, Spain, and France.
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MEDIA OWNERSHIP. Breaking the news
The debate over TikTok is part of a bigger story.
The House of Representatives passed a bill Wednesday to force ByteDance to divest from TikTok. Britain’s arts minister said Wednesday the government would bring a bill to ban foreign state ownership of newspapers and magazines.
INTELLIGENCE. The free press has often had a troubled relationship with free trade but seldom in recent times has foreign media ownership been under such a cloud. The late intervention of Donald Trump and dozens of TikTok influencers failed to prevent the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Bill from passing 325-62. And while the Senate is more divided, Joe Biden has promised to enact the bill if it reaches his desk.
FOR BUSINESS. TikTok is already banned in India, as well as on official devices across the West, but this hasn’t stopped foreign influence or misinformation. Nor has it stopped data-harvesting, internet addiction, or antisocial behaviour. Regulators are struggling to find better ways to manage a fast-evolving sector. Brussels, as always, seeks to stay in the lead. The European Parliament moved on new laws Wednesday to regulate AI and protect journalism.
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THE NETHERLANDS. Beyond Wilders' dreams
The far-right candidate won’t become prime minister. Yet.
Geert Wilders said Wednesday he would forego the premiership if it allowed his party to form government four months after coming first in national elections. Broadcaster NOS said a technocratic cabinet may also be formed as a fall-back.
INTELLIGENCE. An “extra-parliamentary” government, along the lines of that run by Italy’s Mario Draghi in 2021-22, would deprive Wilders of a symbolic victory, but could avoid the messy compromises of coalition politics and set his Freedom Party (PVV) up for a bigger win at the next election, due by 2028. Approval for the PVV has risen from around 22% in November to 33% today. Support for the centre-right has collapsed. Plus, after Draghi came Giorgia Meloni.
FOR BUSINESS. A technocratic government may ease threats from chip equipment maker ASML – which forms around 40% of Dutch market capitalisation – to leave the Netherlands, but it could put pressure on regulators to agree to more US demands on closing export loopholes. Like many tech firms, ASML has benefited from liberal migration laws. But more than this, it has benefited from lithography sales to China, which have only been occasionally blocked.
GIBRALTAR. Rock in a hard place
Brexit’s loose ends threaten to come apart.
Britain's Europe minister, Leo Docherty, said Wednesday the UK would not compromise Gibraltar's sovereignty following a visit to the territory. Docherty had earlier told MPs Gibraltar could fall under the Schengen Area pending EU talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Placing Gibraltar in the Schengen zone as part of a post-Brexit treaty would streamline travel between the territory and adjacent Spanish suburbs, which house many of its workers. Yet it would require British visitors to go through passport control – a red line for many Tories and a reminder of earlier divisions on Northern Ireland. Gibraltar does not have the same electoral significance, but it holds a unique strategic and symbolic importance.
FOR BUSINESS. A post-Brexit deal for Gibraltar has been stalled by debates in Spain and Britain. Those who live on the rock – who have voted overwhelmingly to remain part of the UK – would prefer less friction in the labour market, but its economy has hardly suffered from the uncertainty, booking nominal growth of 7.5% in the latest year reported thanks to a lucrative offshore banking and gaming sector. Those advantages would disappear with a return to Spain.
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SPAIN. Autonomous drivers
Politicians in Madrid and Barcelona fail to give way.
Catalonia's government called snap elections Wednesday after the region's parliament rejected its budget. Spain's parliament is expected to pass an amnesty bill for Catalan separatists later this month. Protests were held on Saturday.
INTELLIGENCE. The minority left-wing governments in Madrid and Barcelona have faced censure over Catalan independence, opposed by most voters nationally and in Catalonia, and divisive culture war issues, such as support for Palestine. The snap vote in Catalonia on 12 May could diffuse matters and the expected defeat of the ruling Republican Left of Catalonia could be a boon for Spain’s ruling Socialists' Party, which is leading in regional polls.
FOR BUSINESS. If the Socialists can win in Catalonia and nix the region’s separatist push they can turn to more unifying matters, like the economy.The Bank of Spain raised its 2024 outlook Tuesday to 1.9% – double the region’s average. Yet they still face threats nationally. Not only has the conservative People’s Party extended its polling lead, the far-right Vox could be a wildcard in Catalonia, with its young and charismatic secretary likely to be a candidate.
FRANCE. Corsica correction
Macron eyes self-government for a restive region.
French and Corsican officials agreed Tuesday to constitutional wording that could grant autonomy to the island. Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said despite the step there would still be "no separation between Corsica and the Republic".
INTELLIGENCE. The wording makes no mention of the Corsican language, of which official recognition has been a demand of Corsican nationalists, but the agreement may stall separatist agitation after widespread protests in 2022 and a tripling of support for full independence (albeit to a still low 35%). Emmanuel Macron will hope the issue goes away. Whereas Corsicans broadly support autonomy, many on the mainland vehemently oppose decentralisation.
FOR BUSINESS. Brittany and Alsace among other regions have also sought autonomy, which is a concern for Paris. But the bigger headache may be the reaction Corsica receives in France's more far-flung regions in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, not to mention its “collectivities” in the Pacific. These territories provide France with most of its exclusive economic zone and claims to being a great power. And any diminution would only further fuel the far right.