Memorandum of unravelling
Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the EU, China, the UK, and Niger.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran starts to toy with Washington’s desperation.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv’s efforts to impress Brussels and Moscow risk stalling.
EUROPE. CHINA. Caution on trade suggests a weak response.
BRITAIN. A blow against Reform, and Starmer, in Makerfield.
NIGER. Another attack on an airport full of uranium.
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IRAN. Taking Burgenstock
Tehran starts to toy with Washington’s desperation.
JD Vance cancelled his trip to Burgenstock, Switzerland for preliminary peace negotiations after Iran warned it might resume a full blockade on Hormuz due to fighting in Lebanon. Vance earlier slammed Israel’s “freakout” over the deal.
INTELLIGENCE. The ceasefire MoU, only just signed in Versailles, already looks as inglorious as that venue’s other accords. Iran has the US’s measure. Sensing Vance’s dislike of Israel (”Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel”) and Trump’s dislike of war (“we run out of reserves at about four weeks”; “I didn’t want to see economic catastrophe”) it will judge a gold-plated MoU may become a gold-plated treaty.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump parked the hard parts of the negotiation for the MoU’s 60-day ceasefire. Judging by day one, Iran may get everything it wants, in addition to its wins in the initial document. That may not just mean a return to a JCPOA-style nuclear deal, but an even weaker agreement, plus the US’s military exit from the Gulf. Israel and GOP grandees will hate it, but having shown their very weak hand, it’s not just Trump but Vance now tied to the surrender.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The numbers don't Lyman
Kyiv’s efforts to impress Brussels and Moscow risk stalling.
A 500-drone strike pm Moscow blew a 100-foot lid off an oil tank as EU leaders met in Brussels. Volodymyr Zelensky urged Ukraine’s expedited accession as the bloc’s best security guarantee. Members were divided over talks with Russia.
INTELLIGENCE. The strikes on Moscow were impressive but ultimately distract from