Message from the High North

Ukraine, Russia, India, the US, Israel, Palestine, the Korean Peninsula, and Bolivia.

The signal fires of peace, Nikolai Roerich, 1917-18, oil and tempera on canvas, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Europe awaits a potential coup de grâce.

• INDIA. UNITED STATES. A deal with Moscow won't guarantee relief.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu has gone too far to turn back.

• KOREAN PENINSULA. Pyongyang dares Seoul toward détente.

• BOLIVIA. A split in the right sees a third force emerge.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Peacefire

Europe awaits a potential coup de grâce.

Donald Trump urged Ukraine to make a deal with Russia after his summit with Vladimir Putin. Volodymyr Zelensky said the current front line could be the basis for talks. Seven European leaders are due to join him in Washington later today.

INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky's allies will want to avoid him facing the humiliation of his previous meeting with Trump, but they're unlikely to be able to convince the US to change course. Details have emerged of a take-it-or-leave-it offer, potentially supported by US security guarantees, but with no formal role for NATO. This could see the loss of most, if not all, territories conquered by Moscow so far, as well as the parts of Donetsk not yet under Russian control.

FOR BUSINESS. Europe may be able to obtain more concessions for Ukraine if it leverages its economic heft (it used to be Russia’s largest customer), but the loss of Ukrainian territory will be a blow to European prestige and influence. Any Ukrainian referendum to approve a territorial transfer would likely be accompanied by a presidential election that current polls show Zelensky losing (if he runs). Beyond what it’s cost so far, it’s yet unclear what Russia gives up.

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INDIA. UNITED STATES. Delhi of a pickle

A deal with Moscow won’t guarantee relief.

Oil prices fell in early trade on expectations of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump said he "didn't have to think" about additional tariffs on China. US-India trade talks for 25-29 August had been cancelled, Reuters said.

INTELLIGENCE. Due to the potential for a Ukraine-Russia deal, it's unlikely the US will