Metal as anything
The EU, the US, Ukraine, Russia, Bosnia, Iran, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Brussels takes a gamble with retaliatory tariffs.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow may decide to punt Washington’s ceasefire plan.
BOSNIA. A showdown looms between Sarajevo and its Serbs.
IRAN. Tehran spurns Trump for talks with Moscow and Beijing.
CONGO. Kinshasa eyes peace talks and a proposed US minerals deal.
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EUROPE. UNITED STATES. Steel trap
Brussels takes a gamble with retaliatory tariffs.
Donald Trump threatened further tariffs Wednesday after the EU announced $28 billion in retaliatory levies, including on jeans, bourbon and Harley-Davidsons. Trump repeated claims the EU was “set up in order to take advantage" of the US.
INTELLIGENCE. Following Trump’s 25% global duties on steel and aluminium, Canada also announced $21 billion in tariffs, but the EU is nowhere near as united, and even if it were, has less leverage (e.g., in the case of stopping electricity supplies, or harming integrated automotive supply chains between Michigan and Ontario). Brussels has offered de-escalation, but the US Trade Representative said the moves were “punitive” and “out of step with reality”.
FOR BUSINESS. Britain has notably stayed out of the fray. Australia and Brazil have likewise ruled out retaliation. Yet with strong unions, a commitment to international rules (belying protectionist instincts) and goaded by moves on Ukraine, the EU has less political patience and a greater capacity to absorb economic risks, with large domestic demand (only Germany and the Netherlands ship much steel to the US) and lower inflation (2.4% vs 2.8% in the US).
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Balls in the air
Moscow may decide to punt Washington’s ceasefire plan.
Vladimir Putin was unlikely to accept current terms for a ceasefire, media said Wednesday, as Russia’s president visited troops in Kursk for the first time since Ukrainian incursions last year. Russian oil flows were surging, Bloomberg reported.
INTELLIGENCE. Some have described Washington and Kyiv’s proposed 30-day ceasefire as a masterstroke to call