Mexico, the US: Tariffs drawn

Also: China, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.

Mexican Standoff, Robert Wright Stewart, 1927, oil on canvas, private collection.

The five things you need to know today:

• MEXICO. UNITED STATES. Trump and Sheinbaum risk stumbling into a standoff.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. A spat on fentanyl could lead to a win-win outcome.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. A ceasefire in Beirut will increase the focus on Tehran.

• PAKISTAN. Protesters break through Islamabad’s steel wall.

• AFGHANISTAN. RUSSIA. Moscow’s security chief calls on the Taliban.

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MEXICO. UNITED STATES. Tariffs drawn

Trump and Sheinbaum risk stumbling into a standoff.

Claudia Sheinbaum said Tuesday she might retaliate against Donald Trump's threats of a 25% tariff on Mexican imports "until we put our common businesses at risk". Reading from a letter to Trump, she mentioned carmakers in particular.

INTELLIGENCE. The nature of distributed supply chains means a job lost in Guanajuato isn’t a job gained in Detroit. Indeed, the whole edifice may as well decamp to Shanghai. Trump knows this, as do most of his advisers. Mexico’s economy minister followed Sheinbaum’s press conference with a statement that “we will find a solution”. Migration and crime will be hard to fix overnight but improving on Joe Biden or Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador should be easy.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump and Sheinbaum are lucky in that they’re following leaders who were manifestly ineffective at combatting irregular migration and organised crime. Sheinbaum’s predecessor AMLO ignored the crisis within his borders. Joe Biden ignored the crisis crossing his. It won’t be hard for Trump and Sheinbaum to thus find a mutually face-saving path to success. But the question is how far each will want to push amid respective nationalist pressure.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Chemical imbalances

A spat on fentanyl could lead to a win-win outcome.

Beijing urged Donald Trump Tuesday not to take its "goodwill" for granted on fentanyl cooperation, adding China was the first country to schedule precursor substances. Chinese jets shadowed a US patrol aircraft over the Taiwan Strait.

INTELLIGENCE. The US opioid epidemic is largely driven by demand. Medical reforms would go further than foreign pressure. And having made the pharmaceutical