Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump bets a bounced cheque for a poll bounce.
IRAN. Poleaxed on water, the Pentagon eyes Pickaxe on land.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Battle lines move into Moldova.
COLOMBIA. ECUADOR. Rubio tours the neo-colonies.
BRAZIL. In the campaign’s final weeks, everyone gets involved.
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UNITED STATES. Not buying it
Trump bets a bounced cheque for a poll bounce.
Donald Trump said he would pay every American adult $5,000 if Republicans won the midterms. The Treasury said it would buy up to $6 billion in 10 and 20-year bonds Thursday, triple the size of its last buyback, as 10-year yields hit 4.8%.
INTELLIGENCE. Judging from the cancelled deliveries of a $5,000 DOGE dividend, or a $2,000 tariff refund, neither markets nor voters should hold their breath over Trump’s latest gambit, which would cost an estimated 4% of GDP at a time when federal debt is already, for the first time since World War II, higher than the economy’s output. Plus, retaining control of both houses would be hard for any incumbent party, let alone one whose leader now polls at just 33%.
FOR BUSINESS. Markets should be more worried about Scott Bessent’s buybacks, which, besides boiling the ocean, indicate zero appetite for fiscal repair as the war in Iran and runaway social security spending outpace any potential gains from higher income tax receipts. Seen against Norway’s decision to reduce its US bond exposure (and the Netherlands’ call to repatriate its gold), the once-fringe “debasement trade” now seems both real and mainstream.
IRAN. Cute as a nuclear button
Poleaxed on water, the Pentagon eyes Pickaxe on land.
Trump warned Iran “not to get cute” over reported activity at Pickaxe Mountain, an alleged nuclear site. Iran claimed to have attacked 10 ships as its Houthi allies claimed to have seized the Yemeni city of Mokha, on the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
INTELLIGENCE. At the Republican convention in Dallas, Trump signalled both