Mine not yours
Ukraine, Russia, the US, Greenland, China, Taiwan, and Myanmar.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. With the minerals deal off, Trump warns of ‘big problems’.
UNITED STATES. Pre-emptive trade bargaining begins.
GREENLAND. Mette Frederiksen goes where JD Vance couldn't.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Hegseth fails to clarify Washington’s intentions.
MYANMAR. The civil war continues despite a massive earthquake.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Dead and buried
With the minerals deal off, Trump warns of ‘big problems’.
Donald Trump warned Volodymyr Zelensky not to back out of a minerals deal with the US. Kyiv earlier said EU rules would preclude it. Russia's sovereign wealth fund said talks had begun with Washington on joint rare earths projects.
INTELLIGENCE. Zelensky said he would consider an agreement, which may also involve US ownership of energy infrastructure, if and when there are "no relevant legislative threats". As currently written, the deal would break EU financial rules, which would endanger Ukraine's accession aims, enshrined in its constitution. It’s a convenient excuse. The draft describes US aid to date as a loan. Trump may have better luck extracting minerals from Russia.
FOR BUSINESS. The entire proposal is not just unfair but unworkable. Ukraine's mineral resources are unlikely to ever match those in more benign jurisdictions, including the US. The risk of arrangements being overturned by a future administration in Washington (or Kyiv) will be too great. And while a US-Russia deal seems far-fetched (Trump claimed Sunday to be “very angry” with Putin), Moscow is at least a willing partner with a record in mining investment.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
UNITED STATES. Tariffs and buts
Current ceasefire plans offer little reassurance.
Asian markets fell Monday after Donald Trump said he would bring reciprocal tariffs on "all countries". Trump earlier said he "couldn't care less" if car prices rose. Downing Street said it had “productive negotiations” with the White House.
INTELLIGENCE. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant had earlier said reciprocal tariffs would only be applied to a "dirty