Moldova: On the edge of Europe
Also: Israel, Iran, Myanmar, COP16, and airlines.
In today’s dispatch:
MOLDOVA. A referendum on EU membership comes down to the wire.
ISRAEL. IRAN. An intelligence breach may not be entirely unwelcome.
MYANMAR. The junta is fighting on all fronts.
BIODIVERSITY. The world discusses a treaty that transcends implementation.
AIRLINES. Hoax bomb threats cause turbulence.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.
MOLDOVA. On the edge of Europe
A referendum on EU membership comes down to the wire.
Votes to confirm Moldova's EU membership intentions in a constitutional referendum were ahead by 9,100 out of 1.5 million Monday, with 99.1% counted. Maia Sandu had received 41.9% of votes in an accompanying presidential election.
INTELLIGENCE. Incumbent Sandu will face Eurosceptic runner-up Alexandr Stoianoglo in a second round on 3 November. Her narrow referendum win (if that’s indeed the case) could be pyrrhic if pro-EU voters don't turn out in equal numbers. Similarly, she needs to maintain enthusiasm leading into the more important parliamentary elections, which must be held before July next year. Her PAS party's support has fallen sharply from its record tally in 2021.
FOR BUSINESS. Sandu blamed foreign (Russian) interference for the knife-edge result, calling it as an "unprecedented assault on democracy” and claiming 300,000 votes had been bought. But between late-stage EU offers and bans on the opposition, the reality is that many Moldovans just aren’t interested in Europe, which has recorded worse growth than Russia and has in some (though certainly not all) respects been less accommodating to economic migrants.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Flavour of the leak
An intelligence breach may not be entirely unwelcome.
House Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed Sunday the US was investigating the leak of two classified intelligence reports on Israel's preparations to strike Iran. The documents, based on satellite imagery, were posted on Iranian social media.
INTELLIGENCE. The leak was unlikely intentional, nor was it likely a hack, but there may be a silver lining for Israel and the US to what was probably another case of too many people having too much access to sensitive material (and sharing it for often idiosyncratic reasons). The upside could be that should the strike go ahead in the form anticipated then Iran will have more time to prepare and less reason to retaliate, ultimately leading to an even worse outcome.
FOR BUSINESS. In the logic of escalation there are reasons to notify your adversary of a strike (as Iran did in April and arguably again in October). This leak could provide such notice, even if unintended, but Benjamin Netanyahu may not have appetite for such Queensberry rules in the wake of a Hezbollah attack on his private residence on Saturday. Israel’s air defences are beginning to fray. A second US THAAD anti-missile system has allegedly been requested.
MYANMAR. Kicking down the Tatmadaw
The junta is fighting on all fronts.
China opened fire on a Myanmar fighter jet bombing rebels near the border, Burmese social media accounts claimed Saturday. "Terrorist" rebels bombed China's consulate-general in Mandalay Friday, Myanmar’s military government said.
INTELLIGENCE. The Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s powerful military, has waged war against a myriad of armed insurgencies since independence in 1948. Yet since its coup against a short-lived civilian government in 2021, the Tatmadaw has been in the fight of its life, with even erstwhile allies like India and China taking a dim view and engaging more openly with the rebels. Only Russia, far from the front line, and which sent ships this week for joint drills, is discernibly loyal.
FOR BUSINESS. Diplomatically isolated and experiencing more tactical defeats than victories, the Tatmadaw could soon collapse. Yet rather than return Myanmar to its former (pseudo-) democratic state, this would more likely risk a break-up of the ethnically fragmented, and fractious, country. This would endanger not only Chinese infrastructure investments, but access to the Indian Ocean at a time when its other conduit, Pakistan, is facing its own insurgency.
BIODIVERSITY. Supranatural
The world discusses a treaty that transcends implementation.
Delegates arrived for the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which starts Monday until 1 November. Around 80% of parties to the agreement had failed to submit national plans.
INTELLIGENCE. On paper, the CBD is one of the UN’s greatest triumphs. Among UN members, only the US has failed to ratify it. Yet off paper, it’s as fragile as the ecosystems it’s designed to protect. COP16’s host, Colombia, has enormous biodiversity and a focus on giving a greater voice to indigenous groups. President Gustavo Petro will see the meeting as a diplomatic coup. But like much of Petro’s governing style, there’s likely to be little substance.
FOR BUSINESS. Part of the CBD’s problem is, unlike the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, there’s little role or responsibility for business. Economically pricing biodiversity is harder. Mitigating its destruction needs more than the wildlife equivalent of a carbon credit. And the UNFCCC, which holds its own COP (29) in Baku next month, is hardly an exemplar of supranational governance or multilateral cooperation. Endangered species will need to wait.
AIRLINES. The plane-spotters who cried wolf
Hoax bomb threats cause turbulence.
India said it would take legislative action to deal with a spate of hoax bomb threats impacting almost 100 flights over the past week. Australian police were probing a threat against an Air New Zealand flight from Wellington Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. The threats seem less a concerted campaign to terrorise than a (very bad) joke that’s gotten virally out of hand. Like yelling fire in a crowded theatre, false alarms are not new and there are few ways to prevent them, other than the threat, in turn, of legal punishment. Ubiquitous encrypted communications make this easier said than done. It’s unlikely all of the perpetrators will be caught. More such pranks, in other jurisdictions, can be expected.
FOR BUSINESS. Bomb threats, often against schools, occur worldwide but seldom do so many occur at once (airports have also been targeted, as have hotels and hospitals – mostly in Delhi). In the case of the past week’s airline hoaxes, each one has cost an estimated $400,000, not including the costs to police and militaries. Previous spates (e.g., Indonesian airlines in 2018, Jewish community centres in 2017, Australian schools in 2016) have lasted for weeks.