Mongolia, Russia: Side steppe

Also: Iran, Turkey, Yemen, and North Africa.

Daytime in the Steppes, Aleksey Savrasov, 1852, oil on canvas, Tretyakov Gallery, Moscow.

In today’s dispatch:

• MONGOLIA. RUSSIA. Ulaanbaatar hosts Putin, but not because it wants to.

• IRAN. RUSSIA. A strategic partnership may be less than meets the eye.

• TURKEY. Erdogan sends a not-so-subtle message.

• YEMEN. A Saudi tanker is hit in the Red Sea.

• NORTH AFRICA. Regional governments are pushing their luck.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

MONGOLIA. RUSSIA. Side steppe

Ulaanbaatar hosts Putin, but not because it wants to.

Vladimir Putin arrived in Mongolia late Monday in defiance of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. Putin told a local newspaper Russia could supply "cheap gas" if the Power of Siberia-2 energy pipeline was constructed.

INTELLIGENCE. From the Kremlin’s perspective, the visit will have two aims. The first is to set a precedent for Russia’s other friends to ignore the ICC should Putin visit (major international summits will soon be held in Laos, Peru and Brazil). The second is to progress the long-delayed Power of Siberia-2. Even if the first succeeds, the second will probably fail. Mongolia, over which PoS-2’s likeliest route crosses, isn’t the real hold-up. China, the end customer, is.

FOR BUSINESS. Mongolia could hardly refuse Putin’s visit. Landlocked and sparsely populated, it fears Moscow more than The Hague. China can, however, continue to push Russia around on PoS-2, despite its long-term energy needs. China will want to extract the best possible price (versus, say, Turkmenistan) and will want to show who’s boss in Asia (particularly in the wake of Putin’s visit to North Korea). There may also be historic territorial claims to consider.

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IRAN. RUSSIA. Hit and missile

A strategic partnership may be less than meets the eye.

Iran may soon deliver ballistic missiles to Russia, sources told Bloomberg Monday. Moscow and Tehran will finalise a partnership "in the very near future", Russia's foreign minister said. Iran rebuked Russia over its policy shift on Armenia.

INTELLIGENCE. Along with a Russia-China axis, a Russia-Iran axis is what many Western governments fear most. But as with