Mutually assured downturn
China, the US, East Asia, Panama, Ukraine, Russia, and energy prices.
The five things you need to know today:
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Beijing and Washington look set to drive off a cliff.
EAST ASIA. UNITED STATES. US allies juggle pragmatism with patronage.
PANAMA. US pressure risks backfiring.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv seeks headlines as global interest fades.
ENERGY. Oil price falls are part economics, part engineering.
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CHINA. UNITED STATES. This means war
Beijing and Washington look set to drive off a cliff.
Treasury yields spiked Wednesday as duties of 104% took effect on Chinese goods alongside other tariffs. Donald Trump said he would soon announce "major" pharmaceutical tariffs. Elon Musk called trade adviser Peter Navarro a “moron”.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump appears set on crashing the US economy to make a point. And while a doubling of prices will also harm Chinese exporters, Beijing has far more room to stimulate and pivot to domestic consumption. The rise in trade tensions come alongside fresh military sabre-rattling. Trump says he’s approved defence spending in the "vicinity" of $1 trillion (up from $850 billion). More sixth-generation fighter jets have been spotted in Chinese skies.
FOR BUSINESS. The tensions have also led to a fall-out between Musk and Navarro, meaning one will likely soon exit the White House. But other than a Chinese rebalancing – Xi Jinping has vowed to “fully unleash” consumption – there are few silver linings. There’s also the risk of a crisis forming in other channels. The Treasury is due to sell $180 billion in bonds this week (China is normally a buyer). Wall Street is braced for margin calls. Earnings season is near.
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EAST ASIA. UNITED STATES. Divide and fool
US allies juggle pragmatism with patronage.
Trade talks had been scheduled with Japan and South Korea, US officials said Tuesday. Donald Trump's told lawmakers 70 countries were "kissing my ass" for tariff relief. Trump asked for Nippon Steel's purchase of US Steel to be reviewed.
INTELLIGENCE. As Europe debates its response and China retaliates, US-leaning countries in East and Southeast
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