Mutually assured obstruction
Iran, the Red Sea, Thailand, the US, and the UK.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Vance heads for the next round of entrapment chicken.
RED SEA. The Iran War’s proxy front grows more complicated.
THAILAND. A dormant mega-project finds its moment.
UNITED STATES. Trump’s cabinet causes more headaches.
BRITAIN. Starmer admits to bad judgment, and proves it again.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm helping businesses and investors to get ahead of the world. Connect with me on LinkedIn to learn more. And if you’re not receiving the full edition, upgrade below.
IRAN. Blockade tackle
Vance heads for the next round of entrapment chicken.
Oil prices eased after Tehran said it was "reviewing" its participation in Pakistan-brokered talks as Donald Trump said he would send JD Vance. The EU told Reuters it would sanction entities responsible for obstructing the Strait of Hormuz.
INTELLIGENCE. Both the US and Iran blame each other for blocking Hormuz, and neither looks willing to climb down first. Iran will calculate it has less to lose by attending the talks than the potential gains of getting a reprieve (the ceasefire ends Wednesday night), or by wrongfooting the US (Trump continues to oscillate on whether Iran's "nuclear dust" is an urgent priority). What Iran won’t do is end the blockade on its own, let alone relinquish its tacit control.
FOR BUSINESS. To the rest of the Gulf’s chagrin, Tehran is increasingly recognised as the de facto controller of Hormuz. Whether it chooses to act on this, through tolls or blockades, will depend on negotiations, but it’s unlikely to be removed as a threat unless the US escalates (e.g., a full invasion), or both sides can agree to third-party mediation (e.g., from China). Even in a best-case scenario, Gulf oil prices are thus likely to remain structurally higher than before.
RED SEA. Wheels within deals
The Iran War's proxy front grows more complicated.
Sudan’s army chief met Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah Monday after Saudi Arabia reportedly pressured Pakistan to cancel a $1.5 billion arms sale. Ethiopian analysts said Sudan had been smuggling arms to Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.
INTELLIGENCE. Prior to the US and Israeli attacks on 28 February, Iran was notionally