Muwaffaq Salti in the wound
Iran, Libya, the US, Argentina, and AI.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. A strike on Jordan shatters a negotiation illusion.
LIBYA. Washington’s impatience could short-circuit stability.
UNITED STATES. Diplomatic ghosting haunts Graham’s funeral.
ARGENTINA. El Loco’s money seems sounder than his mind.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. Markets start to check their models.
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IRAN. Injury to insult
A strike on Jordan shatters a negotiation illusion.
Oil futures jumped 5% after Tehran launched surprise strikes early Wednesday on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, where three US personnel were killed on 17 July. Iran earlier dismissed an Omani proposal for "voluntary” Hormuz “fees”.
INTELLIGENCE. The attack, which CENTCOM claims to have intercepted, will test both Donald Trump and the Fed, for whom the week’s markedly lower oil prices had otherwise given a dovish hue to the FOMC. It will also test regional US allies, who had been drifting toward accommodation, whether in Oman’s fee proposal or the UAE’s reported outreach. Tehran is either very confident in its leverage, or its hardliners still oppose even the smallest compromise.
FOR BUSINESS. While a minority will oppose any deal, it’s more likely the strike was part of a judgment in Tehran that it can resuscitate not only the best bits of the June ceasefire memorandum but new concessions on control of Hormuz. Israeli media reports “substantial” offers from the US, while Reuters says China has asked the Houthis for “exclusive preferences” in the Red Sea. Trump, for whom all politics is a transaction, can only admire the chutzpah.
LIBYA. Power plays
Washington’s impatience could short-circuit stability.
Production resumed Tuesday after protesters breached the Mellitah oil and gas complex as part of a youth-led campaign to “paralyse the government”. Trump adviser Massad Boulos said he had a “productive call” with the prime minister.
INTELLIGENCE. Boulos, also Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, has sought to deliver