My friend’s enemy is my enemy’s friend
Russia, Iran, ASEAN, Mexico, Ethiopia, and Niger.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
RUSSIA. IRAN. Putin auditions for his role on the Board of Peace.
SOUTHEAST ASIA. ASEAN fails to seize the middle power moment.
MEXICO. USMCA pre-positioning gets underway.
ETHIOPIA. Abiy’s list of challenges, foreign and domestic, grows.
THE SAHEL. Jihadi chaos in Niger faces a nuclear test.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
RUSSIA. IRAN. Switching all sides
Putin auditions for his role on the Board of Peace.
Donald Trump said he planned to speak to Iran and Vladimir Putin would halt strikes for a week. A VIP flight from Tehran arrived in Moscow as Putin hosted the UAE’s president. Abu Dhabi scheduled another round of Russia-Ukraine talks.
INTELLIGENCE. The Kremlin also says it has invited Volodymyr Zelensky for talks. The seeming switch from war to diplomacy, as Kyiv loses much of its power, either suggests Putin will get something in return, or Trump, who recently hung a photo of Putin in the White House, has made a real threat. The answer may lie in Iran, with Moscow lobbying for talks, and competing with Ankara as a putative peacemaker, just as another US warship arrives in the Gulf.
FOR BUSINESS. A neat solution for all would be the exile of Ali Khamenei to Moscow – a Maduro-style decapitation without the kidnapping. Should it go alongside US support for full Russian aims in the Donbas, then all the better for Putin, who, in any case, would probably prefer a more pragmatic interlocutor in Tehran. Still, a bit more sabre-rattling is likely first. The IRGC will hold drills in the Strait of Hormuz. The army has taken delivery of 1,000 new drones.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA. Middling effort
ASEAN fails to seize the middle power moment.
ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Manila were split on their response to elections in Myanmar and a code of conduct for the South China Sea. European Council President Antonio Costa left Asia after upgrading the EU’s ties with Vietnam.
INTELLIGENCE. While not without its challenges, Vietnam is a rare ASEAN member