Myanmar, China: Min to midnight

Also: India, Japan, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and Iran.

Scene from a Burmese court, unknown artist, c1910, private collection, London.

In today’s dispatch:

• MYANMAR. CHINA. Reports of an internal coup within the Tatmadaw.

• INDIA. CHINA. Delhi denies a clash along the border.

• JAPAN. The prime minister announces he’ll step down in September.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As Kyiv advances to Kursk, Moscow nears Pokrovsk.

• ISRAEL. IRAN. Biden seemingly threatens Israel with Tehran.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

MYANMAR. CHINA. Min to midnight

Reports of an internal coup within the Tatmadaw.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing was detained by his deputy, Aung Lin Dwe, civil society actors claimed Tuesday. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was due to arrive in Myanmar on Wednesday before travelling to neighbouring Thailand.

INTELLIGENCE. Even if true, Min Aung Hlaing's overthrow won't necessarily change much. There are few moderates in the military. But even if false, there are signs of discord within the Tatmadaw as more defeats are reported. China officially backs the junta but has ties to other groups and is increasingly wary of the vacuum. There are separate rumours Beijing has offered Min Aung Hlaing asylum in exchange for a surrender to a transitional government.

FOR BUSINESS. Even without the fog of war, reports out of Myanmar are seldom complete, but the trends indicate the junta's days are numbered. What comes next is the bigger question. A return to unified government, even under Aung San Suu Kyi, seems unlikely. Few in the 134 ethnic communities, for whom fighting has been worst, want a return to Burmese suzerainty. China will want to ensure the failure of one Myanmar doesn't lead to the failure of 100.

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INDIA. CHINA. From pillar to post

Delhi denies a clash along the border.

Indian papers retracted reports Tuesday that Chinese and Indian troops had clashed near Pillar Point 12 in Ladakh after Delhi refuted several social media posts. Beijing slammed a Voice of America report about India deploying light tanks.

INTELLIGENCE. Beijing and Delhi are again in talks to delineate the ‘Line of Actual Control’, which forms the de facto border. Relations have thawed in recent months, but