In today’s dispatch:
NATO. The Western alliance faces a crucial test.
UNITED STATES. Biden quells a rebellion in the ranks.
JAPAN. Tokyo conducts defence diplomacy without defence capacity.
SUDAN. Regional intrigues at both ends of the Nile.
BITCOIN. What a German sell-off says about cryptocurrency.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily global intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
NATO. 75 years old
The Western alliance faces a crucial test.
Joe Biden delivered a forceful speech to NATO leaders Tuesday at the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit. Biden pledged extra missile defences for Ukraine and awarded NATO’s outgoing secretary-general the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
INTELLIGENCE. Speaking without stumbling, the president was on form but NATO, while outwardly invigorated by the war in Ukraine and the addition of Sweden and Finland, looks worse for wear. Its leaders in France and Germany are diminished. Internal frictions on Russia and Israel are regularly played in the open. Donald Trump remains a probability for November. NATO isn’t “brain dead”, as Emmanuel Macron warned in 2019, but it’s still on life support.
FOR BUSINESS. Defence expenditure has surged. At least 23 members are expected to now meet their 2% of GDP pledge, up from three in 2014. But laggards remain, including Canada, which is currently under criticism for not even having a spending plan. Further, outlays remain on high-tech (but job-creating) platforms, not workaday munitions that can be sent to places like Ukraine as the need arises. Russia outpaces NATO’s artillery production three-fold.
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UNITED STATES. 81 years young
Biden quells a rebellion in the ranks.
A vast majority of House Democrats pledged support for Joe Biden at a Tuesday caucus, media reported. New York representative Jerry Nadler reversed his call for Biden not to run but New Jersey's Mikie Sherrill called on him to resign.
INTELLIGENCE. For now, the momentum appears to be back with Biden. With the obstacles to replacement high, his candidacy was never in serious doubt, but