In addition to our daily risk monitoring brief, the team behind Geopolitical Dispatch also provides advice, risk audits, scenario planning, executive masterclasses and board briefings among other services. Click here to get in touch.
NATO. North Atlantic entreaty
After bringing the alliance together, Ukraine is dividing it.
NATO ministers agreed Wednesday to plan long-term support for Ukraine, but the White House pushed back on a proposal from Jens Stoltenberg for the alliance to lead the 50-nation "Ramstein Group" of weapons delivery partners.
INTELLIGENCE. Stoltenberg, like many Europeans, wants to “Trump-proof” support for Kyiv. But the outgoing secretary-general, also like many Europeans, risks agitating an increasingly bipartisan view that members are taking the US for granted. Donald Trump and the 2% spending debate is only the most visible manifestation. Washington is also upset at European freelancing, whether on troops in Ukraine, talks with Russia, China, or counter-terrorism.
FOR BUSINESS. NATO’s European members need to find an extra €56 billion a year to meet their spending target. Until then, their views won’t carry weight and they’ll remain vulnerable to coercion from Russia and beyond. NATO’s European members are also hampered by the same difference of views that plagues the EU. At one end are Atlanticists like Poland. In the middle are “third path” equilibrists like France. And then there’s Turkey and Hungary.
Geopolitical Strategy is the advisory firm behind Geopolitical Dispatch. Our partners are former diplomats with vast experience in international affairs, risk management, and public affairs. We help businesses and investors to understand geopolitical developments and their impacts with clarity and concision.
EARTHQUAKES. Seismology and semiconductors
Taiwan was a near miss.
The number injured in Taiwan's 7.2-magnitude earthquake climbed past 1,000 Thursday, though no further deaths were recorded. Japan issued an evacuation warning for parts of Okinawa Wednesday after a 7.5-magnitude quake in the sea.
INTELLIGENCE. Earthquakes frequently rock inhabited areas along the Pacific ring of fire and for the most part, firms and governments are prepared. Extreme events like the Tohoku in 2011 and Alaska in 1964 are the exception, not the rule. Yet well-constructed homes, offices, and semiconductor fabs along the faultlines don’t prevent less well-built roads, bridges and power plants from causing significant humanitarian, economic, and supply chain risks.
FOR BUSINESS. The 1995 Hanshin earthquake near Kobe, and the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand, only came in at 6.9 and 6.3 on the Richter scale, but they caused $200 billion and $40 billion in property damage respectively (as well as around 6,000 and 200 lives). More than 100 quakes of a similar magnitude occur on average each year. The tech industry is more vulnerable than most, with its activities concentrated in California and East Asia.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Strait talk
A direct attempt at strategic ambiguity.
Former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou called for more cross-Strait dialogue Wednesday as he toured Guangzhou. Hau Lung-bin, a former Taipei mayor, said he would visit Henan to join a ceremony honouring China’s "Yellow Emperor".
INTELLIGENCE. Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang, to which Ma and Hau belong, has long sought closer ties with Beijing, but the visits carry extra weight as the more independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party begins its second term with a legislative minority and mounting pressure from Xi Jinping. The visits also carry salience as Taipei's naval chief heads to the US and Washington explicitly frames the AUKUS alliance in the context of Taiwan.
FOR BUSINESS. The KMT, and Taiwan more broadly, must carefully balance the need to keep channels with China open without being seen to kowtow to Beijing. The task is made harder as Washington pressures Taipei to limit trade in semiconductors and hew closer to its talking points on non-Strait issues. Yet with reports of a meeting between Ma and Xi scheduled for 8 April, Beijing and Taipei may wish to signal a return to a more ambiguous yet peaceful era.
Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.
ISRAEL. Beyond help
Another aid tragedy harms all sides.
Officials vowed a comprehensive probe Wednesday into the killing of seven aid workers in Gaza. NGOs accused the Israel Defense Forces of systematic attacks. The IDF cancelled troop leave amid fears of an imminent Iranian strike.
INTELLIGENCE. Benjamin Netanyahu is not just under greater allied pressure in the wake of six foreign and one local charity worker deaths, but War Cabinet member Benny Gantz has called for elections by September to "maintain unity" and "renew trust". An attack from Iran may, politically at least, come as a relief, as it would redirect attention to Israel’s enemies. But Tehran’s reprisal to Israel’s earlier strike on its Damascus embassy, may be a dish served cold.
FOR BUSINESS. Monday's killing of Quds force commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and seven other Islamic Revolutionary Guards, follows December's death of Quds Brigadier Razi Mousavi, but it could have an impact more akin to the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. This not only led to a missile strike five days later, wounding 110 US personnel, but a near breakdown in US-Iraqi ties. Joe Biden is due to speak with Netanyahu today.
SAUDI ARABIA. Gulf warily
Riyadh plays its cards with care.
Jake Sullivan postponed a visit to Saudi Arabia Wednesday on account of a cracked rib. Donald Trump had spoken to "old friend" Mohammed bin Salman, the New York Times reported. The US envoy for Yemen visited Riyadh for talks.
INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh is juggling a truce with Tehran, rapprochement with Israel, Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the civil war in Sudan, the reopening of Syria, competition with Turkey and the UAE, relations with China and the US, oil price coordination with Russia, and economic diversification at home. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, under renewed scrutiny as Saudi takes over the UN Commission on the Status of Women, can’t afford to drop the ball.
FOR BUSINESS. The White House may begrudge MBS’s outreach to Trump so near to the election, but the leader, once dubbed a “pariah” by Joe Biden, will be forgiven for his otherwise meticulous security cooperation. What’s less forgivable though is Riyadh’s economic turn to Beijing – Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia increased 10-fold in 2023, according to Emirates NBD – and its reluctance to ease oil prices dampens hopes of substantive US rate cuts.