New front, Houthis?
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, the Philippines, and Canada.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Red Sea warning is inherently vague.
IRAN. A pause in hostilities won’t stop a ticking clock.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A regional grain crisis returns.
THE PHILIPPINES. ASEAN proves more interesting than usual.
CANADA. Another futile prod from behind the southern border.
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YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. All things to el-Mandeb
The Red Sea warning is inherently vague.
Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia, potentially opening a new front in the conflict and stopping oil shipped via the Red Sea. Iran said it was in a "full-scale" war with the US. Oil prices rose then fell again.
INTELLIGENCE. Riyadh hasn’t responded to the announcement, which was put in terms of opposing Saudi-backed efforts to reinstate a longstanding embargo on Iranian flights to Houthi-held cities. For this reason, the Houthis may climb down if Saudi Arabia, or its proxies in Yemen’s UN-recognised government, let more flights in, irrespective of the Iran war’s direction. So far, the Houthis have refrained from hitting Israel, which would signal a longer blockade.
FOR BUSINESS. The Houthis successfully disrupted Red Sea shipping for most of 2024 but doing so again, with diminished missile stocks and with stakes much higher, would risk a return to a full-scale civil war in Yemen. Iran’s own risk thresholds may have been met, but the Houthis are influenced, not controlled, by Tehran, and get protection money from Riyadh to keep the Bab-el-Mandeb strait open. At this stage, a blockade seems more warning than fact.
IRAN. Ten-day TACO
A pause in hostilities won’t stop a ticking clock.
US-Iran strikes continued for a 10th night, including on oil tankers, as Tehran knocked back a 10-day proposed truce made via Qatar. Donald Trump said “Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over!”
INTELLIGENCE. Talks have never been in doubt, even during the fighting, but it’s