New records, old constraints

Japan, China, the US, Australia, Mongolia, and Indonesia.

The Star of Company, Yumeji Takehisa, c. 1916, woodprint, Yumeji Art Museum, Okayama.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• JAPAN. Takaichi ushers forth a new coalition.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Taiwan appears back on the menu.

• AUSTRALIA. UNITED STATES. A minerals deal keeps AUKUS afloat.

• MONGOLIA. A minerals tax leads to a constitutional crisis.

• INDONESIA. From school meals to Gaza, Prabowo walks a tightrope.

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JAPAN. Necessity and Innovation

Takaichi ushers forth a new coalition.

Sanae Takaichi became Japan’s first female prime minister Tuesday after securing a coalition deal with the fellow hard-right Japan Innovation Party Monday. The Nikkei 225 hit fresh records on expectations of accommodative fiscal policy.

INTELLIGENCE. Dovish on the economy and hawkish on defence, Takaichi is seen as Shinzo Abe’s heir. She is a frequent visitor to the Yasukuni Shrine, though not during this week’s autumn festival. But relying on the Innovation Party (Ishin) for supply, she won’t have Abe’s authority. Ishin advocates for lower spending and a smaller state. Her probable finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, also a fiscal dove, may likewise face resistance from her ministry.

FOR BUSINESS. Takaichi and Katayama have broken the glass ceiling but will face the same constraints of their predecessors, meaning that market exuberance is likely overdone. They may also likely face a hostile reception from China, Japan’s biggest trade partner, particularly over Takaichi’s stance on World War II. She may not be so hawkish on Russia, however. Earlier today, Tokyo pushed back on Washington’s calls to cease energy imports from Sakhalin.

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. For a mess of soymeal

Taiwan appears back on the menu.

Donald Trump said Taiwan might come up in trade talks with Xi Jinping this month “but I’m not going to talk about it now.” Taiwan’s national security council chief said China was more interested in “expansion” than in the economy.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump has emphasised his view that China will not invade Taiwan,