Newsom rises to the top

The US, China, Iran, the Baltic and the high seas.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Trump anoints his possible successor.

• UNITED STATES. CHINA. Trade talks continue into a second day.

• IRAN. Out of deception and delay, a deal may yet emerge.

• THE BALTIC SEA. Russia and NATO vie for a northern gateway.

• THE HIGH SEAS. A new maritime treaty is urgent but unlikely.

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UNITED STATES. New vs old

Trump anoints his possible successor.

Donald Trump said he would support Gavin Newsom's arrest after his border czar said California's governor had hindered law enforcement operations. Newsom said the state had sued the administration on the National Guard’s federalisation.

INTELLIGENCE. In addition to deploying 2,000 guardsmen over the governor's head, Trump has also sent 700 Marines to protect federal buildings across Los Angeles, seen as under threat from anti-immigration enforcement protests. After four days, local police largely have things under control, but this has not stopped Trump from seeking to further politicise matters. His next step would be to invoke the Insurrection Act, last used during the LA riots of 1992.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump has sought to wedge Newsom on law and order, but has only raised the governor's profile and given the Democrats their first potential candidate to rally around. As with LA's fires, the more Trump resorts to name-calling (“Newscum”), the more it takes away from images that speak for themselves (burning cars, decrepit streets). And compared to the youthful Newsom, footage of Trump tripping on stairs makes him seem old and crass.

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UNITED STATES. CHINA. London fog

Trade talks continue into a second day.

Asian indices rose Tuesday after Donald Trump said he was "only getting good reports" from trade negotiators meeting their Chinese counterparts in London. The White House said officials were seeking a "handshake" on rare earths controls.

INTELLIGENCE. Export controls on rare earths are the main sticking point, but they’re Beijing's main source of