Nine-iron cudgel

The EU, the US, China, Cambodia, Thailand, the Red Sea, and Sudan.

The green at Musselburgh Links, Arthur Elliot, 1886, watercolour, National Library of Scotland, Edinburgh.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• EUROPEAN UNION. UNITED STATES. Trump lands a blow at Turnberry.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Negotiators hurry to delay a final deal.

• CAMBODIA. THAILAND. A quick truce could bring unintended consequences.

• RED SEA. The Houthis threaten to escalate attacks.

• SUDAN. The RSF declares a parallel state.

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EUROPEAN UNION. UNITED STATES. Greenmail

Trump lands a blow at Turnberry.

Futures climbed Monday after Donald Trump announced a deal with Ursula von der Leyen at his Scottish golf course Sunday where EU goods would receive 15% duties and the EU would invest $600 billion and buy $750 billion in US energy.

INTELLIGENCE. The deal is a success for Trump, but will be meaningless unless it can politically hold. Von der Leyen said it was the best she could get, but European farmers, having scuppered far more generous deals for far less, will likely see it differently. Earlier this month, von der Leyen was warned of an “absolute last chance” after surviving a no-confidence vote in the European Parliament. Her opponents, led by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, could decide this is it.

FOR BUSINESS. Meloni cautiously welcomed the deal Sunday, but without details, said she was unable to “judge it”. The agricultural lobby, facing a lopsided influx of US food, may do it for her. For other sectors, 15% tariffs are better than 30%, but there’s a question about why the single market should be open to the US but not others. Brussels may end up calling a mulligan, unless, of course, Washington does first. Talk of reopening other recent deals has already begun.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Our team of former diplomats and intelligence officials help businesses and investors around the world map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. Nordic slow walking

Negotiators hurry to delay a final deal.

Negotiators led by Scott Bessent and He Lifeng arrived in Stockholm Monday for their third meeting in three months. The South China Morning Post said a trade truce would be extended by 90 days beyond the current 12 August deadline.

INTELLIGENCE. Preparations are underway for a leaders' meeting, either in Beijing in