No cards, no cry
Ukraine, Russia, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Acting sad over a lose-lose proposition.
FRANCE. Macron strenuously denies plans for an election.
INDIA. PAKISTAN. Modi breaks precedent by suspending the Indus Treaty.
NORTH KOREA. Rare signs of dissent among Pyongyang’s parents.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. A series of false dawns in the east.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Crimea river
Acting sad over a lose-lose proposition.
Donald Trump said Volodymyr Zelensky had "no cards to play" Wednesday after Kyiv said it would not recognise Russia’s occupation of Crimea. Senior US officials boycotted talks in London involving Ukraine, Germany, the UK and France.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump's bluff to walk from negotiations may be called. As it becomes increasingly unclear what advantage Washington’s involvement can bring, Kyiv may judge it better to negotiate bilaterally, as Moscow has said it's also willing to do. And with the US having already cast doubt on supporting Ukraine militarily, during or after talks, there's no point sticking around. Europe, despite its smaller capabilities, seems prepared to step into the breach.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has several reasons to feel upset. A smaller power has turned up its nose. His access to mines and energy may get rebuffed. An election vow will be broken. But more to the point, if Europe ends up striking a deal – through a more balanced use of carrots and sticks – he'll not only lose a Nobel prize but a sense of quid pro quo for trade with Russia. Seymour Hersch claimed last month Trump was eyeing a resort development in Crimea.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
FRANCE. Mais non
Macron strenuously denies plans for an election.
The Élysée denied plans Wednesday to hold a snap legislative election. On Tuesday, Bloomberg said Emmanuel Macron had consulted his inner circle on a vote this year. Macron travelled to Madagascar for a regional Indian Ocean summit.
INTELLIGENCE. As Macron returns to the global stage, his ratings have improved. His ability to look strong and