No peace of cake
Israel, Palestine, the US, Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and Cyprus.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. A ceasefire is declared but obstacles await.
UNITED STATES. Biden warns of a tech oligarchy he helped create.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. As tit-for-tat strikes escalate, the negotiations begin.
GERMANY. A contracting economy gives another boost to the hard right.
CYPRUS. A US weapons deal will anger Turkey.
Get full access to all five daily briefings, weekly analyses, and private webinars. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Jumping the guns
A ceasefire is declared but obstacles await.
Officials confirmed a truce accord Wednesday, with Biden and Trump both claiming credit. Strikes on Gaza intensified. Yemen’s Houthi attacked the USS Truman for a sixth time. Israel said its cabinet would vote on the deal Thursday.
INTELLIGENCE. The ceasefire, which would see Israeli forces withdraw from Gaza over six weeks as hostages and prisoners are exchanged, would not enter into force until Sunday, thus the latest attacks are immaterial. Yet such hostilities bode ill for an implemented deal, let alone a more comprehensive agreement to follow. With Trump’s endorsement, Benjamin Netanyahu will be hard pressed to back down, but if he can pin any failure on Hamas he will.
FOR BUSINESS. Until the agreement is implemented, and is shown to hold, businesses should not get ahead of the news. Israel’s benchmark TA-125 rose 1.26% Wednesday, and could see further runs, but a ceasefire is only one step to the type of solution on Palestine that would see an expansion of the Abraham Accords or a reduced Iranian threat. Holdouts in Netanyahu’s cabinet will know this and will be less afraid of Trump’s reaction, or those of anyone else.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials. Interested in exploring how our scenario planning workshops, bespoke briefings, tailored risk assessments or ongoing advisory support can help your business?
UNITED STATES. A complex legacy
Biden warns of a tech oligarchy he helped create.
Joe Biden warned of an "oligarchy" and "tech-industrial complex" in his farewell address Wednesday. Donald Trump said he’d establish an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariffs. Markets jumped on bank profits and rate cut hopes.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden ends four years with a strong economy but bad polls. Much of his success can be attributed to