Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump’s information campaign goes off base.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu calls Tehran’s bluff.
KOREAN PENINSULA. Lee eyes a pact for security.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Seen from Svalbard, a deal still looks distant.
BRITAIN. ARGENTINA. Pressure on the Falklands runs via DC.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm for boards and executive teams. Our Geopolitical Readiness Program helps organisations build a shared view of geopolitical change, identify and measure risks and opportunities, agree practical responses and know what to watch next. We also deliver geopolitical crisis simulations, scenario deep dives and geopolitical fluency training for corporations.
IRAN. See no evil
Trump’s information campaign goes off base.
JD Vance denied there was a “war" with Iran as Howard Lutnick claimed there had been no American deaths, before later saying he meant in Venezuela. Donald Trump called the media "treasonous scum" for reporting on interceptor shortages.
INTELLIGENCE. Rather than trying to shape the narrative, the White House is now just denying it. Yet the bluster has had little impact on polls or the markets. Brent remains above $95, despite claims that 18 million barrels are exiting the Gulf each day, just shy of pre-war levels. The Republican Party is in a pre-midterms panic, with requests to use some of Trump’s super PAC funds unanswered and marginal district candidates boycotting its Dallas convention.
FOR BUSINESS. Between US claims and commercial data, it’s hard to know how much is exiting Hormuz. Judging from futures, it’s not nothing but it’s not much. Red Sea flows are clearer, but amid ongoing fighting between Yemen’s Houthis and the Saudi-backed government, the risk of the Bab-el-Mandeb closing again can’t be ruled out. US refined storage is meanwhile at an all-time low for September, just as maintenance for many facilities is becoming overdue.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. A ridge too far
Netanyahu calls Tehran’s bluff.
Iran said it would respond “forcefully” if Israel took Lebanon’s Ali al-Taher ridge. Israel said it had cleared Hezbollah tunnels inside the range. Defence Minister Israel Katz said an Iranian attack would free the IDF “from any restrictions.”
INTELLIGENCE. Iran has focused its attacks on US bases but not Israel. Whether this