No war but the trade war
The US, Iran, the Baltic, Albania, and the DRC.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump returns to a fight he thinks he can win.
IRAN. The logic of deterrence outweighs the costs of delay.
THE BALTIC. Strikes on St Petersburg are heard loudest next door.
ALBANIA. A backlash to Kushner will deter other petitioners.
DR CONGO. Ebola reaches Islamic State-held territory.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
UNITED STATES. Call of duties
Trump returns to a fight he thinks he can win.
The EU said proposed tariffs of 10-12.5% were “absurd” after Washington claimed 60 countries weren’t doing enough to ban goods made with forced labour. Donald Trump said he’d attend the G7 after hosting a White House UFC cage match.
INTELLIGENCE. Stuck in Iran and wary on Cuba, Trump is spoiling for a fight. Rich trading partners are the ultimate soft target. The proposed levies could help change the midterms narrative and win symbolic concessions, without crashing a market that’s seen worse. They’re, of course, absurd – based on who has the biggest trade relationship with the US, not what they’re doing on supply chain ethics – but absurdity has never been an obstacle for Trump.
FOR BUSINESS. The tariffs could replace temporary duties expiring next month, levied in response to the Supreme Court striking down Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. They come amid negotiations on USMCA and the EU’s finalisation of an agreement struck last year. Markets have shrugged, but like Brexit, the long-term harm isn’t in the levy but the chaos. It’s no wonder that gold, not Treasuries, is now the world’s top reserve asset.
IRAN. No stopping it
The logic of deterrence outweighs the costs of delay.
Oil futures eased after Trump said a deal with Iran might occur on the weekend following agreement between Israel and Lebanon for Hezbollah to move north of the Litani River. The House passed a resolution to block Trump’s war powers.
INTELLIGENCE. The House motion, while awkward for Trump, is empty, as is the