'Nobody has any idea'
The US, China, Mexico, the EU, Argentina, and Tanzania.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. CHINA. Trump aims again at the foot.
UNITED STATES. MEXICO. When in doubt, go after your neighbour’s water.
EUROPE. As Washington isolates, Brussels negotiates.
ARGENTINA. Milei's reforms advance but at a cost.
TANZANIA. The ruling party reverts to its autocratic ways.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UNITED STATES. CHINA. 145 calibration
Trump aims again at the foot.
US stocks, bonds and the dollar sank Thursday after the White House confirmed its tariffs on China now stood at 145%. Donald Trump said there may be "transition problems" but the result would be “beautiful". Chinese stocks held Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump also said he would work out a deal with his "friend" Xi Jinping. But Xi won't easily surrender. Nor will he appreciate Trump's threats of hot war. Earlier this week, the president alluded to the US having "weaponry that nobody has any idea what it is”. China's military is also something of an enigma. NATO's chief said its expansion was "staggering" Tuesday. He Weidong, the PLA's number two, has been sacked, the Financial Times reported Friday.
FOR BUSINESS. Sino-US relations are at their lowest point since Nixon's visit to China in 1972. But unlike Nixon, the other president most associated with corruption and stagflation, Trump lacks a Henry Kissinger. If there’s a defined strategy towards China, it’s being hidden amid bombast and own goals. In the meantime, markets are seeing Trump’s approach as a random walk, depending on which wing of his cabinet he listens to, and where his mood takes him.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
UNITED STATES. MEXICO. Grande designs
When in doubt, go after your neighbour’s water.
Donald Trump Thursday threatened new tariffs and sanctions on Mexico over alleged abuses of a 1944 water treaty after three years of drought. Claudia Sheinbaum said Mexico had proposed a list of actions, and a deal would be reached.
INTELLIGENCE. Sheinbaum has played it cool over trade, narcotics and, most recently, threats of unilateral US drone
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Geopolitical Dispatch to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.