Nobody puts Khamenei in a corner
Israel, Iran, the US, Belarus, India, Pakistan, and Japan.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. IRAN. With no good options, Tehran might go for broke.
UNITED STATES. Today’s rancour is nothing on what could come next.
BELARUS. Lukashenko deals himself into US-Russia rapprochement.
INDIA. PAKISTAN. Delhi hardens after Islamabad’s outreach to Washington.
JAPAN. The ruling Liberal Democrats fail a key electoral test.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. Without Fordow or favour
With no good options, Tehran might go for broke.
Iran called Donald Trump a "gambler" Monday, warning of retaliatory attacks after US B-2 bombers hit three nuclear sites and the president flagged regime change. Airlines cancelled flights to Dubai. Oil settled up 1% after earlier rising by 5.7%.
INTELLIGENCE. Beyond further strikes on Israel, Iran is yet to respond. Damage to the sites is unclear. Trump claims Fordow was “completely and totally obliterated” but his officials have been more cautious. Hardliners will seek a maximum response. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz is one option. And though it might be short-lived, the objective is less oil disruption than dragging the US into a ground war – the only scenario where Iran would have an advantage.
FOR BUSINESS. Markets are waiting to see if the weekend's attacks were the end of the war or the start. Iran's retaliation will signal which. Targeted strikes on US bases in Iraq, per the response to the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani, will likely signal it's over, whether Iran returns to nuclear talks or not. Strikes on US assets in the Gulf, or a blockade of Hormuz, would signal something greater. Trump’s rhetoric suggests he’ll follow Iran’s lead either way.
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UNITED STATES. Margin of terror
Today’s rancour is nothing on what could come next.
Anti-war protesters gathered in New York and elsewhere Sunday, with commentators on the left and right decrying Washington’s decision to effectively join the Iran war. Democrats were expected to bring a symbolic vote in the Senate.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump will correctly judge that the split in MAGA can be healed. As
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