Northern exposure
Ukraine, Russia, Spain, Iran, the US, and South Korea.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Warnings of Belarus’s entry into the war.
SPAIN. Parliament urges the prime minister to quit.
IRAN. Trump and Tehran navigate a shrinking offramp.
UNITED STATES. JD Vance says the quiet part out loud.
SOUTH KOREA. A wild market suspends trading once again.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Widening gyre
Warnings of Belarus's entry into the war.
Alexander Lukashenko warned against dragging Belarus into the war after Ukraine threatened to hit relay stations across the border, which were helping Russian drones. Moscow was preparing “provocations” in the Baltic, the Guardian said.
INTELLIGENCE. Minsk is not directly party to the war, but has long assisted Moscow’s efforts. As in the first days of Vladimir Putin’s 2022 invasion, it could foreseeably be used again as a launchpad for a northern assault. Ukraine’s army has called for new brigades to counter a possible push across this border, which would put further pressure on an already stretched front line. It would also put pressure on Belarus’s Baltic neighbours to get more fully involved.
FOR BUSINESS. If Putin were to bear upon Lukashenko, who has pretended at neutrality in recent months, now is the time, with Ukraine’s relations with Poland in crisis, and with Baltic air defences recently found wanting when Ukrainian drones, targeting St Petersburg, landed in NATO territory instead. And ahead of next month’s NATO summit, US-European unity has seldom looked shakier, with Washington’s outreach to Minsk just one of many points of friction.
SPAIN. Bipartisanchez
Parliament urges the prime minister to quit.
The Congress of Deputies voted 177 to 171 to urge Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to resign, or submit to a confidence vote if he didn’t call a snap election. Sanchez vowed to stay on. His justice minister called the motion “purely symbolic”.
INTELLIGENCE. Sanchez is under a gathering corruption storm. His former transport