Not out of the woulds

The US, China, Iran, Libya, and Nepal.

The five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Trump’s tariffs look headed for the Supreme Court.

• CHINA. Talks with Washington are back on hold.

• IRAN. Tehran plays hard to get on the eve of a possible deal.

• LIBYA. Haftar holds oil hostage in his war for control.

• NEPAL. A fight for the monarchy runs through Delhi and Beijing.

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UNITED STATES. Stark relief

Trump’s tariffs look headed for the Supreme Court.

An appeals court Thursday granted a stay on Donald Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, after the White House said it would seek “emergency relief” should an earlier ruling against them not be paused. Plaintiffs said the move was "a procedural step".

INTELLIGENCE. The court ordered the plaintiffs to respond by 3 June and the White House by 9 June. Regardless of the outcome, it's likely the legality of the IEEPA duties will go to the Supreme Court, which could add months to the uncertainty. Beyond corporate planners and markets, foreign partners will wonder if it's worth continuing with trade negotiations, though many may decide there are broader relationship-management reasons in pretending to do so.

FOR BUSINESS. Trump spoke with Japan's prime minister after the announcement. The White House claims it’s close to announcing three other deals. Without committing themselves, states will want to lock in tariff relief, whether Trump uses the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Section 232, or some other mechanism. A new tool, Section 899 of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (i.e., the budget), could soon give the president even more tariff latitude.

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CHINA. Xi’s not going to answer

Talks with Washington are back on hold.

Scott Bessent said trade talks with China were "a bit stalled" Thursday and might need leader-level intervention. China's embassy lodged a “solemn” démarche Thursday after the US said it would "aggressively" revoke Chinese student visas.

INTELLIGENCE. Beyond questions over Trump's authority to impose tariffs, Beijing will be hesitant to constructively