Off the hook

Ukraine, Russia, China, Australia, Japan, and Thailand.

Waiting, Yuri Pimenov, 1959, oil on canvas, State Tretyakov Gallery, Moscow.

The five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump gives Putin a 50-day reprieve.

• CHINA. A pre-tariff export surge boosts the economy.

• AUSTRALIA. Albanese goes wide to avoid a sticky wicket.

• JAPAN. Ishiba faces a series of reckonings.

• THAILAND. A former coup leader eyes a soft return.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Raincheck

Trump gives Putin a 50-day reprieve.

Oil fell and Russian equities rose after Donald Trump sidestepped a call to immediately sanction Russia with a promise of 100% secondary tariffs "if we don't have a deal in 50 days". Trump reiterated a pledge to send more Patriot missiles.

INTELLIGENCE. The Patriots will be routed via European stocks and funded by European partners to sidestep congressional authority. Germany is under pressure to send two of its six operational batteries, with the US to then replace these. Germany has already sent three batteries to Ukraine and two to Poland. Sending its Taurus missiles continues to be ruled out by the SPD-led defence ministry. Still, these supplies are more real than the threat of tariffs.

FOR BUSINESS. The 50-day deadline will arrive in September, when Vladimir Putin attends China’s 80-year Victory over Japan parade. It also coincides with the start of rasputitsa (mud season), when rains will make roads impassable and drone warfare harder. This would be a logical time for a ceasefire. If not, Xi Jinping can avoid having Trump rain on his parade by inviting him as well. China, alongside India, would be the main victim of any secondary US tariffs.

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CHINA. Steady as Xi goes

A pre-tariff export surge boosts the economy.

China's GDP grew 5.2% in the second quarter, above forecasts, as strong factory output and exports outweighed weak retail sales and falling home prices. Beijing was filling Washington's diplomatic space, a Senate minority report said.

INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump's on-and-off duties have not just inadvertently