Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Tehran isn’t ready to concede, and neither is Trump.
UNITED STATES. It is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
CANADA. Ottawa may hope for a deal but will keep hedging.
SOUTH AFRICA. A municipal vote heralds a new era.
INDONESIA. Prabowo could end the year by living dangerously.
🇺🇸The midterms are done. Join our subscriber webinars later today (US) and tomorrow (Europe, Asia) for the full analysis on what this means for you.🇺🇸
IRAN. Looking down the barrel
Tehran isn’t ready to concede, and neither is Trump.
Brent crude fell 8% amid speculation Donald Trump would fire Pete Hegseth and the Democrats would withhold war powers in Congress. Tehran said four tankers caught fire hitting mines in Hormuz as it held a mock execution of Trump.
INTELLIGENCE. As in other areas, Trump has never sought Congress’s permission, and he can always fund the war from existing budgets. It also takes two to TACO. Even if he wanted to end the war, Iran won’t let him without harsh terms. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said the US’s collapse had accelerated and “the slightest inclination toward submission” would only embolden it, adding that US enmity would persist regardless of who was in power.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s strategic choices remain what they were at the start of the week – escalation or capitulation – even if the politics have changed. And while Tuesday’s result was met in tones conciliatory by Trump’s standards, he still has enough pride to defend the war and deny he’s sacking Hegseth (who may nonetheless take a Senate vacancy). Likewise, he won’t want to follow a 1974-level drubbing with a 1975-style evacuation from a foreign theatre.
UNITED STATES. Water off a lame duck's back
It is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The White House posted a “public service announcement” that Trump was still president after the media reported his administration’s “death knell” and “the beginning of the end”. JD Vance told Twitter: “the reason we lost is the war.”