Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The crude’s getting out, but the US isn’t.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis’ advance is slowed.
ETHIOPIA. ERITREA. Ties are cut after attacks on Addis.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Winter comes early for Putin.
FRANCE. Mélenchon’s rise is a gift to Le Pen.
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IRAN. Distil in the game
The crude’s getting out, but the US isn’t.
Crude prices eased Friday on higher Gulf flows, but diesel remained near record highs as China froze distillate exports and the US pressed Europe to release emergency stocks. A third aircraft carrier and 2,000 Marines left for the region.
INTELLIGENCE. Donald Trump has again used pre-election rallies to claim victory over Iran. And as observed Iranian exports fall to zero against rising flows from the Gulf, many are starting to believe him. Yet prices for refined products, particularly diesel, remain high. Global shortages are spreading. Industry insiders don’t expect a return to pre-war prices until 2028. Far from Hormuz, from the bowser’s perspective, Iran still retains its earlier escalation dominance.
FOR BUSINESS. China’s export ban is a win for Iran, insofar as it will only encourage the US (and potentially India) to follow. And while that could lead to temporary relief for US energy consumers, it would exacerbate transatlantic tensions, disincentivise refining in the medium term, and raise the likelihood of a beggar-thy-neighbour recession. As in Vietnam, where the US won every battle but lost the war, the loosening of Hormuz may prove a Pyrrhic victory.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Matter of Taiz
The Houthis’ advance is slowed.
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government bombed Houthi positions across the province of Taiz early Friday as the Iran-aligned group struck a power station in Medina. A separate Houthi strike on a Yanbu oil terminal was reportedly intercepted.
INTELLIGENCE. The Houthis are unlikely to be defeated, but if their march across