Oman cannot serve two masters
The Gulf, Israel, Lebanon, Ukraine, Russia, North Korea, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
THE GULF. Regional fence-sitters are placed in a quandary.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. A deal to please the US satisfies few others.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky writes to Putin. Putin verbals Trump.
NORTH KOREA. Kim gets a special visit from a special friend.
UNITED STATES. Save America is just an act.
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THE GULF. Stunted neutrality
Regional fence-sitters are placed in a quandary.
Oman’s main oil export terminal reopened Friday after an alleged drone attack. Tensions rose between Iraq’s Shia militias as several agreed to enter disarmament talks with the government. The US issued a new region-wide travel advisory.
INTELLIGENCE. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the strikes, which Oman has yet to confirm. Initial blame went to the US, following Trump’s comments on Oman nine days ago, but it was more likely Iran, as a warning not to move too far from a position of studied neutrality, including over Hormuz tolls. The message will have also been received in Iraq, whose Shia-majority government is split on the war, and which this week voted to triple oil exports via Syria.
FOR BUSINESS. Iraq and Oman have been careful not to take sides, unlike the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, which have been the focus of Iranian reprisals. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are somewhere in between. They continue to host US personnel, but an advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader this week said they were “on the right path in history” by taking a more neutral approach in recent weeks. This could be tested amid growing reports of further escalation this weekend.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The war within
A deal to please the US satisfies few others.
Hezbollah rejected a truce agreed between the Lebanese and Israeli embassies in Washington as the IDF said it would not withdraw from the country though Lebanese troops replaced it in the village of Dibbine. The death toll reached 3,526.
INTELLIGENCE. The ceasefire, backed by president’s office in Beirut, barely holds on