Oman’s toll is another man’s transit fee
Iran, Libya, Belarus, the Pacific, and the US.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Washington and Tehran continue to negotiate past each other.
LIBYA. Marco Rubio tips the scales for Tobruk.
BELARUS. Lukashenko is already in the middle of the war.
THE PACIFIC. Canberra has wins, but Beijing has patience.
UNITED STATES. Trump gets stymied on ballots but not bureaucrats.
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IRAN. Money talks
Washington and Tehran continue to negotiate past each other.
Iran denied talks were scheduled with the US, despite it sending a team to Doha, where the White House had dispatched Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Oman gave mixed messages on whether it supported tolls in the Strait of Hormuz.
INTELLIGENCE. Oman’s Sultan, visiting Paris, agreed to promote transits “without conditions”. His foreign ministry, hosting Iranian officials in Muscat, however, has agreed to “fees in return for services” (i.e., a toll in all but name). It’s just one of the dilemmas US and Iranian negotiators will need to unpick, whether they meet directly or only with Qatar. Based on past performance, Witkoff and Kushner may accede to Iran’s demands, but that doesn’t mean it’s over.
FOR BUSINESS. The last two times Witkoff et al and Iran had neared an agreement, this February and last June, Trump and Israel bombed them. Iran won’t want to risk a hat trick, but it may entertain Trump’s envoys to buy time ahead of another potential SPR drawdown surprise tomorrow, which could increase their leverage over Trump, and be among the many reasons why lower crude futures are not being matched by lower gasoline prices at the pump.
LIBYA. Haftar to hold
Marco Rubio tips the scales for Tobruk.
Marco Rubio hosted Saddam Haftar, son of Tobruk-based warlord Khalifa Haftar, whose Libyan National Army controls much of the country's east. Libya’s Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation held its first major licensing round in 17 years.
INTELLIGENCE. The meeting follows recent Pentagon engagement with Haftar senior