Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
On the chopping bloc

On the chopping bloc

Japan, China, Israel, Palestine, Cyprus, and the DRC.

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Michael Feller
Jul 21, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Geopolitical Dispatch
On the chopping bloc
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Scene from a Kabuki Play (Actor Making Sashimi), Utagawa Kunisada, c. 1850, colour woodblock print, Clark Art Institute, Williamstown, Mass.

The five things you need to know today:

  • JAPAN. Ishiba vows to stay on despite an electoral drubbing.

  • CHINA. Construction starts on the world’s biggest dam.

  • ISRAEL. PALESTINE. As the pressure builds, Netanyahu calls in sick.

  • CYPRUS. No breakthrough on a divided island.

  • DR CONGO. A declaration looks less than the sum of its parts.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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JAPAN. Upper cut

Ishiba vows to stay on despite an electoral drubbing.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba vowed not to quit Monday after his Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito lost their upper house majority. The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party said it was mulling a no-confidence vote.

INTELLIGENCE. Some polls had predicted a worse outcome for the LDP, and though markets were closed Monday, the yen has taken things in stride. Still, Ishiba has had his authority shaken just as he enters a critical stage in trade negotiations with the US. Even if the opposition fails to dislodge him, party grandees, who never liked the premier, might. Ex-prime minister Taro Aso is believed to be leading his ouster. Lower house elections aren’t due until 2028.

FOR BUSINESS. Markets will look to the outcomes of trade talks with Washington before deciding if Ishiba's time is up, let alone if early elections are likely. The LDP-Komeito coalition is still the largest bloc. The far-right Sanseito party, which went from one to 14 seats in the upper chamber, still only has three seats in the lower house. The CDP still trails the LDP by around 15 points. Sanseito could act as a break on migration, but has little to say on the economy.

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CHINA. Five weirs in Tibet

Construction starts on the world’s biggest dam.

Infrastructure stocks and commodity markets surged Monday after Beijing announced the start of construction a $170 billion hydroelectric dam along the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet, which feeds around a third of the Brahmaputra in India.

INTELLIGENCE. The megaproject, consisting of five cascade dams and with triple

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