One hundred famous views of Donald
The US, India, Pakistan, the BRICS, Germany, and the Arctic.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump marks 100 days with more tariff turnarounds.
INDIA. PAKISTAN. Tensions rise as Islamabad warns of strikes.
BRICS. The emerging market club shows the limits of expansion.
GERMANY. Friedrich Merz makes some surprising picks.
THE ARCTIC. High North politics gets serious.
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UNITED STATES. The first 100 are the hardest
Trump marks 100 days with more tariff turnarounds.
Donald Trump marked 100 days in office by holding a rally in Michigan, where he promised "the largest tax cuts in history" and $1 trillion in defence spending. Trump earlier gave carmakers two years to meet domestic content requirements.
INTELLIGENCE. Speaking from suburban Detroit, Trump has manufacturing on his mind, but many in the rustbelt are unimpressed. Approval ratings remain low. GDP figures today are expected to report a slowdown to 0.3% from 2.4% last quarter. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says the administration’s first trade deal has been reached, but he's refused to say with whom. The White House earlier promised 90 deals during the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs.
FOR BUSINESS. Evidence suggests the administration doesn't know what it's doing. Promises are becoming woollier, and scepticism is rising. Equities are holding up, erasing most of their post-Liberation Day declines, but the market structure suggests foreign and institutional investment has simply been replaced by domestic and retail traders. MAGA-enthused HODLers, who don't have risk managers or Basel III requirements, aren’t known for trading acumen.
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INDIA. PAKISTAN. Kashmir sweater
Tensions rise as Islamabad warns of strikes.
Islamabad Wednesday said it had "credible intelligence" India would launch military action within the next 24-36 hours. The State Department Tuesday said Marco Rubio would soon hold calls with his Indian and Pakistani counterparts.
INTELLIGENCE. Previous terrorist attacks on Indian soil have typically been followed by reprisals on Pakistan 11-12 days later. Through pre-emption, Islamabad has sought to lower the bar, but tensions are already high following India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. A strong response to last week's incident in Kashmir was always to be expected, but India’s sequencing and calibration in a politicised environment suggests risk of a wider conflict.
FOR BUSINESS. Narendra Modi met his military chiefs last night. India's Cabinet Committee on Security is due to meet later today. The US, UN, China and UK have all appealed for calm. Exercising his retaliation beyond what Washington judges appropriate may endanger Delhi's hopes for a quick trade deal. Prioritising security and deterrence above trade-linked growth, Modi may judge this risk acceptable but frothy local markets may beg to differ.
BRICS. Cracks in the facade
The emerging market club shows the limits of expansion.
Brazil issued a chair's statement after a BRICS meeting in Rio de Janeiro Tuesday, with foreign ministers failing to agree to a joint communique. China had pushed for harder language on trade. Egypt and Ethiopia had issues on UN wording.
INTELLIGENCE. Diplomatic communiques are seldom worth the PDFs they're uploaded to. But when they fail to appear, it suggests something's wrong. In the case of the BRICS, the rancour seems less between major partners India and China, though they’re often at loggerheads, and tensions may rise over Kashmir, but the new members Russia brought in last year. As with the EU and other expanding blocs, more members often mean less results.
FOR BUSINESS. When it hosted the BRICS in 2024, Russia was keen to show it had friends. Hosting it this year, Brazil needs to show the BRICS is a true reflection of the "Global South" (and give safety in numbers versus the US). Egypt and Ethiopia are unlikely to be kicked out, but many will regret inviting them in. Last week saw the 70th anniversary of the Non-Aligned Movement's Bandung Conference. Today, the NAM is a historical curiosity, and a cautionary tale.
GERMANY. Cabinet of curiosities
Friedrich Merz makes some surprising picks.
The Social Democrats approved a coalition deal with the centre-right Christian Democratic Union by 84%, party sources said Wednesday, allowing the Friedrich Merz to form government. Merz announced several CDU cabinet picks Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. Ministers from the centre-left SPD have not yet been selected, but they will likely include popular former defence minister Boris Pistorius in a senior role. He will be joined by new CDU faces, including Johann Wadephul as top diplomat, Katherina Reiche for the Ministry for Economy and Energy, and Thorsten Frei as head of the chancellery. More conservative than the team behind Angela Merkel, these picks may clash with SPD stalwarts.
FOR BUSINESS. Germany has a history of grand coalitions, but the combination of culturally traditional and free market figures in Merz's mould, with the leftovers of the previous left-wing government, may be combustible. The previous administration fell due to its ideological incoherence. The hard-right opposition Alternative for Deutschland will hope the same happens this time around. Merz will need to keep his broad tent focussed on the external threat.
THE ARCTIC. Cold calculus
High North politics gets serious.
Donald Trump called Mark Carney Tuesday and agreed to meet in the "near future". Most Americans thought Trump serious about annexing Greenland and Canada but opposed him doing so, a poll showed. Denmark's king arrived in Nuuk.
INTELLIGENCE. Whether or not Trump truly wants Greenland or Canada, their authorities are taking him seriously too. A scramble is also underway in the demilitarised Norwegian territory of Svalbard, where an undisclosed group has offered €300 million for a Manhattan-sized plot of private land. Even Iceland, for decades without a standing army, is taking the changing security environment seriously. It is hosting NATO exercises and eyeing EU accession.
FOR BUSINESS. The US provided for Iceland's defence from 1941 to 2006, and while not approached it’s seen by some as Trump’s next step. The North Atlantic 'GIUK' gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK) has been relatively undefended since the Cold War, but warming seas are making it more central to military planners in Washington and Moscow. The US Naval Institute reported Tuesday a $5 billion 2025 budget proposals for new Arctic cutters and icebreakers.
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Michael Feller, Chief Strategist