One last squeeze
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Ukraine, Russia, North Korea, and hantavirus.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Leaks on a deal show desperation, not progress.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The war returns to Beirut.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow warns diplomats to leave Kyiv.
NORTH KOREA. Kim turns his back on the South, for now.
PUBLIC HEALTH. Hantavirus is not Covid-19, at least not yet.
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IRAN. Selling lemons
Leaks on a deal show desperation, not progress.
Oil prices crashed before recovering after Axios reported that Iran and the US were close to agreeing a “one-page memorandum” to end the war. Iran’s chief negotiator said “Operation Fauxios” had replaced “Operation Trust Me Bro.”
INTELLIGENCE. A series of shorts were placed minutes before the report was published, suggesting market manipulation. But as each such attempt is made, using favoured journalists, the effects will presumably dissipate. The reality still points to a stalemate. While backchannel talks are undoubtedly occurring, no peace deal is ever one page. Red lines remain largely irreconcilable. A trusted third-party mediator is needed for a durable, genuine solution.
FOR BUSINESS. The war has been a boon for traders (and the reporter who’s made the same claim five times in 19 days) but few others. As each day of false dawns passes, the world loses another 10 million barrels of supply. Some oil, largely Iranian, is still getting out, but a physical crunch is nearing not only for energy, but plastics, fertiliser and helium. Iran’s timeline seems to be extending, however, with storage limits being revised from 15 days away to 45.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Back at it
The war returns to Beirut.
The IDF bombed Beirut for the first time since Donald Trump’s 16 April ceasefire late Wednesday, saying it was trying to target the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force. Benjamin Netanyahu said he had spoken to Trump about Iran.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu and the IDF have been consistent on their desire to