Open season

China, the US, Indonesia, Israel, Iran, and France.

The Explosion in the Alchemist’s Laboratory, Justus van Bentum, c. early 18th century, oil on canvas, Science History Institute, Philadelphia.

The five things you need to know today:

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Markets, inflation, and AI competition heat up.

• INDONESIA. UNITED STATES. Prabowo’s deal is less about trade than politics.

• ISRAEL. Netanyahu fights enemies within and without.

• IRAN. New threats, deadlines and alleged plots aim at mutual disturbance.

• FRANCE. Bayrou risks it all by going after le weekend.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

CHINA. UNITED STATES. Hot chips

Markets, inflation, and AI competition heat up.

The Nasdaq hit a fourth record close Tuesday after Nvidia got approval to resume selling H20 chips to China. Announcing $90 billion in AI investments in Pittsburgh, Donald Trump said the US would fight China "in a very friendly fashion."

INTELLIGENCE. Howard Lutnick said Nvidia's green light was part of a deal with China on rare earths shipments. Markets in both countries rebounded on hopes of a truce in the tech war, overshadowing disappointing bank earnings and stubborn inflation. There is also renewed hope for a summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, joined by key business leaders. In Beijing for a trade fair this week, Nvidia's Jensen Huang is said to also be visiting the Politburo.

FOR BUSINESS. Stabler US-China trade ties don’t mean an end to economic competition. Silicon Valley is worried about China's lead in open-source AI, with the Alibaba-backed Kimi K2 the latest Chinese model to outperform Western incumbents. OpenAI has meanwhile delayed its own open-source release and Meta is reportedly set to abandon its own. China’s models are also more efficient. While the extra H20s are welcome, they need less of them.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

INDONESIA. UNITED STATES. Open Komodo

Prabowo’s deal is less about trade than politics.

Donald Trump announced a "landmark deal” Tuesday to levy 19% tariffs on Indonesian imports and 0% on US exports. Prabowo Subianto left Paris after attending Bastille Day as guest of honour and agreeing to pursue an FTA with Europe.

INTELLIGENCE. 19% is better than 32%, as previously threatened, but barely than