Paradise lost
The Chagos Islands, India, China, Ukraine, Russia, Italy, Paraguay, and Brazil.
The five things you need to know today:
BRITISH INDIAN OCEAN TERRITORY. Trump accedes to the Chagos's handover.
INDIA. CHINA. Xi invites Modi to the dance.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin keeps Trump waiting.
ITALY. An impending visit will test Meloni’s balancing act.
PARAGUAY. BRAZIL. A hydroelectric tariff dispute sparks a diplomatic crisis.
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BRITISH INDIAN OCEAN TERRITORY. All your base
Trump accedes to the Chagos's handover.
Donald Trump gave the green light to Britain's handover of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, Downing Street said Tuesday. Iran threatened to attack the joint UK-US base at Diego Garcia after the arrival of several B-2 bombers on the island.
INTELLIGENCE. Britain’s deal will involve a 99-year lease to Diego Garcia, which it will pay Mauritius for, but just as BIOT's Chagos Islands show their use to allied power projection the timing is odd. Further, for a small island country with a record for wild legislative swings and a vulnerability to coercion from Delhi and Beijing, the guarantee of such a lease isn’t assured. Coming so soon after Trump’s outbursts on the Panama Canal, it speaks of deep incoherence.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran has next to no chance of successfully striking Diego Garcia, a well-defended jewel in the US's overseas network. And if it did, it would be casus belli for Tehran's destruction. But the US (and UK) are not only shooting themselves in the foot with the handover but are indicating a longer-term ambivalence to regional presence (notwithstanding the current focus on Yemen and Iran). Strategists in Beijing will be wondering if Guam may be next.
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INDIA. CHINA. It takes two
Xi invites Modi to the dance.
Delhi and Beijing should strengthen ties in a "dragon-elephant tango", Xi Jinping said on the 75th anniversary of relations Tuesday. Officials met to discuss the resumption of direct flights. China said it was willing to buy more Indian goods.
INTELLIGENCE. With an undemarcated border and regional rivalry, ties between China and India are cool. The US has