Playing a weak hand
Iran, the UK, NATO, Colombia, and Bolivia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Intentionally or not, Trump sets Vance up to fail.
BRITAIN. Starmer faces a leadership contest.
NATO. The alliance dices with death by a thousand cuts.
COLOMBIA. ‘El Tigre’ wins by a whisker.
BOLIVIA. The president tries to negotiate out of an impasse.
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IRAN. Palmed off
Intentionally or not, Trump sets Vance up to fail.
Oil fell after talks between JD Vance and Iranian negotiators concluded, with mediators saying a roadmap had been agreed toward a final deal within 60 days. Talks earlier appeared to collapse amid threats from Israel and Donald Trump.
INTELLIGENCE. Technical negotiations in Switzerland will now begin amid reports the US has agreed to sanctions relief and reconstruction planning. It’s a different story in Washington, where Trump has threatened his own tolls and even, via Fox News, to assassinate Iran’s delegation. This may be Vance and Trump playing good and bad cop, but it could also be Trump’s way to palm off an unpopular deal to his deputy, while retaining the option to blow it all up.
FOR BUSINESS. Having Vance lead negotiations lets Trump deflect blame for surrender while enjoying lower oil prices. And if the deal goes bad, whether due to intransigence from Iran, Israel, the US, or Hezbollah – or political blowback to the terms – he can reset the clock. Yet refilling oil reserves, which would give Trump such options, will take longer than 60 days. For now, Iran still holds most of the leverage. Playing Vance may be clever, but it’s still weak.
BRITAIN. Taking Keir off business
Starmer faces a leadership contest.
Allies of Keir Starmer said the prime minister was mulling "political realities" amid expectations he would concede to a leadership fight today, whether he would join it or not. Trump claimed Starmer would resign, having “failed badly”.
INTELLIGENCE. It doesn’t take US intelligence, or a presidential tweet, to know that