Plus ça change, plus c'est Lecornu

France, Israel, Palestine, Indonesia, China, the US, and Venezuela.

Actor Posing in Front of a Mirror, Honoré Daumier, c. 1870s, pen and black ink with crayon and watercolour on paper, National Gallery of Art, Washington DC.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• FRANCE. Macron tries vainly to stay in control.

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Trump and Netanyahu send diverging signals on Gaza.

• INDONESIA. Prabowo makes an awkward stab at diplomacy.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. In trade and tech, more signs of bifurcation.

• VENEZUELA. Beneath the rhetoric, the deals continue.

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FRANCE. Mirror, mirror

Macron tries vainly to stay in control.

Emmanuel Macron said he would not resign Monday as re-appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu brought together his largely reconstituted cabinet. Lecornu would today present €31 billion in proposed budget cuts, La Tribune said.

INTELLIGENCE. On current odds, the budget has a narrow chance of success, whether the reported cuts, which would bring the deficit down to 4.7% of GDP, are correct. Lecornu faces potentially two no-confidence votes Thursday, and most of the Assembly seems more interested in bringing about elections, whether at the presidential or parliamentary level, than in fiscal repair. This cuts against Macron’s claims of a plurality of support. He may have to keep looking.

FOR BUSINESS. Even if Lecornu survives the week, he’ll still have a truculent Assembly to contend with. Yet with neither Macron, the hard right, nor the hard left interested in cohabitation, Lecornu’s minority government may be the only solution until an election. More serious voices are calling for one, including France’s new Nobel laureate for economics. BPCE SFH, AXA and La Mondiale issued new bonds Monday to take advantage of the temporary reprieve.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Now for the Hamas part

Trump and Netanyahu send diverging signals on Gaza.

Donald Trump declared an end to the war in Gaza Monday, urged Benjamin Netanyahu to be given a pardon, and said Hamas had been given temporary approval to “stop the problems” in Gaza. 24 dead hostages were yet to be exchanged.

INTELLIGENCE. Hamas allegedly executed 32 clan members Monday as it emerged