Polar vortex

Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Iran, Israel, and Turkey.

Man proposes, God disposes, Edwin Landseer, 1864, oil on canvas, Royal Holloway, University of London.

Hello,

Welcome back to our regular daily reporting. Here are the five things you need to know today:

• GREENLAND. The president’s Arctic vanity spirals out of control.

• CANADA. MEXICO. The logic of USMCA is trumped by reality.

• JAPAN. Takaichi’s early poll could backfire.

• IRAN. Tehran plays chicken at the gallows.

• ISRAEL. TURKEY. Netanyahu gets boxed-in on Syria and Gaza.

Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.

GREENLAND. With envy

The president’s Arctic vanity spirals out of control.

The EU warned of a “dangerous downward spiral” in transatlantic ties as leaders prepared a response to Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on eight countries who have opposed his Greenland push. A fifth of Nuuk’s population joined protests.

INTELLIGENCE. Greenland, Denmark and Europe appear, for now, united against Trump, but he’s gone so far in his threats to annex the territory that targeted countermeasures risk emboldening, not curtailing, his actions. Ahead of a planned speech at Davos Wednesday, Trump is reportedly mulling a range of military options. A €93 billion tariff package the EU is mulling, according to the Financial Times, may in fact give him the casus belli he needs.

FOR BUSINESS. The EU, and Britain, cannot not oppose Trump’s threats, but they’re not dealing with a normal actor. Greenland is a vanity project, not a genuine strategic object (as Trump’s apologists attempt to portray it as). His only constraint will be within his own system. Those in Congress and the military who already oppose annexing Greenland don’t need encouragement via reciprocal tariffs. Only something bigger, that hurts his base and donors, might work.

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CANADA. MEXICO. So near, so far

The logic of USMCA is trumped by reality.

US officials said Ottawa would “regret” its EVs-for-canola pact with Beijing after Mark Carney announced a “strategic partnership” with Xi Jinping Friday. Carney said China was “predictable” and had “alignment” with Canada on Greenland.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump appears less concerned than his officials with Carney’s trip to