Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Interests trump values amid an energy crisis.
IRAN. Sabres are rattled as Pezeshkian heads to New York.
PAKISTAN. Munir gets pulled in too many directions.
UNITED STATES. Stakes rise in the attention economy.
UNITED NATIONS. Multilateralists of the world unite.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Cards on the table
Interests trump values amid an energy crisis.
Emmanuel Macron said he had "very good" talks with Donald Trump about an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine. Trump decried damage to Russia’s refineries and said he was working on a "massive" deal to buy Belarussian potash.
INTELLIGENCE. Macron and Trump may differ in their approach to the war, but they share an interest in lower energy prices. That this may end up rewarding the energy seller seems beside the point. Not only are fuel shortages mounting but, for Europe, have become another populist wedge, with the Kremlin suggesting it may work with Alternative für Deutschland to restore natural gas supplies. As for Trump, he is also using his potash deal as a way to punish Canada.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia has a diesel export ban. Belarus is subject to European sanctions (extended too for Russia). While both Moscow and Minsk may want the extra revenue, acting aloof may be a winning strategy ahead of the midterms. Trade is booming with Asia. Vladimir Putin is reportedly planning to attend China’s APEC summit but skip Trump’s G20, despite being invited to both. The nationalisation of Nestle Russia suggests investment is not a priority.
IRAN. Fight and flight
Sabres are rattled as Pezeshkian heads to New York.
Scott Bessent said Iranian airlines would be denied fuel on pain of secondary sanctions as Masoud Pezeshkian flew to New York on a state-registered A340. Another 400,000 barrels were released from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
INTELLIGENCE. The sanctions will come into effect on Wednesday, by which point