Powell behind the throne

The US, Ukraine, Russia, India, China, the Pacific, and the DRC.

Midas, transmuting all into paper, James Gillray, 1797, hand-coloured etching, National Portrait Gallery, London.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UNITED STATES. Rate cuts become secondary to the monetary debate.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump’s Alaska talks elicit a range of emotions.

• INDIA. CHINA. Beijing and Delhi rediscover their complementarities.

• THE PACIFIC. PNG opens a new base for an old strategy.

• DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. Washington goes after Kinshasa.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UNITED STATES. Loose change

Rate cuts become secondary to the monetary debate.

Stocks soared after headline inflation of 2.7% came below expectations. Donald Trump said he was considering "a major lawsuit" against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Scott Bessent said he hoped Stephen Miran could join the Fed this month.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump last week nominated Miran, his chief economic adviser, to a vacated Fed seat. Miran’s presence alone won’t cause Powell to cut next month, nor will 2.7% CPI, let alone 3.1% core. Personal consumption expenditures for July, the Fed's preferred price index, is expected to come in even hotter. A cut, which markets anticipate, will only be justified by softer jobs data, which ironically led to the chief labour statistician losing her own.

FOR BUSINESS. As Trump undermines economic policymaking, rates could be the least of the dollar's worries. Fiscal dominance, both from the size of the deficit (up to $291 billion for July despite tariffs and DOGE), and Trump's leadership style, means the Fed is now only part of the picture. Coupled with volatility in the Japan-based carry trade, and regulatory changes on crypto in retirement accounts, the monetary outlook has seldom been more interesting.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. All the feels

Trump’s Alaska talks elicit a range of emotions.

Friday's Alaska summit would be a "listening exercise", the White House said, after Donald Trump said he wanted to "feel out" Vladimir Putin. EU leaders issued a statement in support of Ukraine ahead of a video call with Trump Wednesday.

INTELLIGENCE. Europe worries the US will accept a territorial swap on Ukraine's