Power move
Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Iran, the UAE, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv agrees to an energy truce. Washingon eyes the furniture.
TURKEY. Erdogan arrests his main rival because he can.
IRAN. Hints of liberalisation in Tehran.
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. A White House meeting that could upend the region.
DR CONGO. In spite of ceasefire talks, the Rwandan-backed rebels head west.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Mass-energy equivalence
Kyiv agrees to an energy truce. Washington eyes the furniture.
Volodymyr Zelensky agreed Wednesday to halt attacks on energy infrastructure in a call Donald Trump described as "fantastic." The White House said US ownership of Ukraine's energy infrastructure would offer "the best protection".
INTELLIGENCE. Washington has seemingly pivoted from a minerals deal to owning Ukraine’s nuclear plants and grid. The value of Ukraine's rare earth deposits was always hyped. A recent analysis of US coal ash landfills suggests greenfield mining is uneconomic. But Ukraine’s electrical network, and the pipelines transporting Russian oil and gas, have a net present value. Hunter Biden, an ex-director of pipeline firm Burisma, may have a pitch deck to share.
FOR BUSINESS. US ownership of Ukrainian infrastructure won’t just protect Kyiv, it’ll protect Moscow in its efforts to resume piped exports to Europe. Recognition of Russian territorial claims (irrespective of continued Ukrainian opposition) will likely sweeten the deal. Europe will hate the obvious neo-imperial optics but may come to enjoy the cheaper energy as it re-arms for a post-NATO future. And Trump can tell his base that America made lots of money.
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TURKEY. Cock and ‘bul story
Erdogan arrests his main rival because he can.
Shares fell and the central bank intervened to support the lira after police detained Istanbul's mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, days ahead of a vote where he was expected to be made the Republican People’s Party's (CHP) presidential candidate.
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey is not due to hold elections until 2028, but President Tayyip Erdogan is exploiting US