Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
CHINA. UNITED STATES. The trade war gets cooking.
JAPAN. The premiership becomes more competitive.
NATO. Punitive threats will weaken, not unite, the alliance.
FRANCE. Lecornu buys time at the expense of reform.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Phase two risks ending before it begins.
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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Tofu fighting
The trade war gets cooking.
Donald Trump said he was “considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil” as “retribution” for a soybean embargo. The US wouldn’t “waste our time” with Argentina, a rival exporter, if Javier Milei lost the midterms.
INTELLIGENCE. Soya was the US’s top export to China last year, and, at $12.7 billion, more valuable than US imports of Chinese auto parts. US imports of Chinese cooking oil, by contrast, were only worth $1.3 billion, and with MAGA types now preferring tallow and butter, few will miss it. Trump’s threat thus smells more designed to show US farmers he’s taking action, as the shutdown stalls their aid and Milei eats their lunch. New US duties will begin on 1 November.
FOR BUSINESS. Unlike Scott Bessent, who seems optimistic on both a truce with China and support for the Argentine peso, Trump appears to have lost interest in Milei. Tying assistance to the midterms looked like an endorsement, but with Milei only having a small chance of winning, it’s more of an exit strategy. It’ll be one way to help Midwest farmers without loosening tough border measures or undoing the tariffs that have seen fertiliser and other input prices jump.
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JAPAN. The test of Tamaki
The premiership becomes more competitive.
Opposition parties met Wednesday to discuss supporting Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki as a unity candidate for prime minister. A parliamentary vote, scheduled for next Tuesday, appeared in doubt, Kyodo said.
INTELLIGENCE. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s new leader, Sanae Takaichi,
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