Probing for mush

Ukraine, Russia, China, India, Japan, Australia, and France.

Prospect of a truce, unknown illustrator in Carlton House Magazine, 1 October 1795, etching, British Museum, London.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The Kremlin strikes Europe as the US looks on.

• CHINA. RUSSIA. Xi and Putin get the frenemies back together.

• INDIA. JAPAN. Modi keeps the door open for the Indo-Pacific.

• AUSTRALIA. The deputy prime minister calls on Vance.

• FRANCE. Macron needs to find a new cohabitation.

And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. No accident

The Kremlin strikes Europe as the US looks on.

Brussels and London expressed outrage Thursday after the EU and British missions were damaged in a Kyiv attack that killed at least 19. The White House said it was not a “surprising” response to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian infrastructure.

INTELLIGENCE. Kyiv has been testing Trump's red lines, and Moscow is too. Moreover, it is testing whether Europe's willingness to engage is rhetorical or genuine. Vladimir Putin wants to win on his terms, lest he face a personal threat to his authority when the war's economic bill comes due. Brussels may decide it needs to go beyond condemnation, sanctions and paying for Kyiv to buy US munitions. EU ministers are due to discuss seizing Russian assets tomorrow.

FOR BUSINESS. Two weeks after his summit with Donald Trump, Putin is behaving as if he fears an imperfect peace more than an unsatisfactory war. Most observers have lost hope of a meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, though the Kremlin continues to express a bare minimum openness to talks to keep Washington off its back. It is thumbing its nose at economic threats. Gas from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 plant arrived for the first time at China’s Beihai terminal.

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CHINA. RUSSIA. Bloc party

Xi and Putin get the frenemies back together.

The leaders of Russia, North Korea, Iran and Myanmar were confirmed to attend next week's military parade in Beijing, China said. At least 20 leaders were due to attend Sunday’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Tianjin.

INTELLIGENCE. Xi Jinping’s World War II victory celebrations either prove how many