Punch to the jawbone
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, the UK, China, Taiwan, and Pakistan.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Further attacks belie the market’s narrative.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu and Hezbollah aren’t ready to quit.
BRITAIN. The far right’s ascent could undermine it.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Taipei is caught in a foreign policy vortex.
PAKISTAN. After misses in Tehran, tensions in Kashmir and Kabul.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client brief of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping leaders understand the geopolitical forces reshaping business and world affairs. Our work includes strategic forecasting, scenario planning, geopolitical risk workshops, crisis simulations and GD Corporate Memberships.
IRAN. In a sling
Further attacks belie the market's narrative.
Tehran claimed strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan after Donald Trump ordered retaliation for the downing of an Apache helicopter near Hormuz. Oil rose then fell again amid reports of "dark transits" through the strait.
INTELLIGENCE. The helicopter was allegedly part of quiet US efforts to help vessels escape Iran’s blockade. Yet the aggregate flows are still a trickle compared to pre-war levels, and lower oil prices are more a result of record stockpile releases. US inventories fell for an eighth week, the American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday, while government data shows stocks at 2003 lows. Oklahoma’s Cushing is tipped to hit its 20-million-barrel operating floor next week.
FOR BUSINESS. Cushing, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate crude, is the centre of world oil pricing. With a total capacity of 90 million barrels, its fall to 20 million risks a disaster that Trump won’t be able to jawbone his way out of. Iran, whose own storage levels at Kharg have been subject of similar speculation, knows this, and will likely time its response to any future attacks accordingly. Fighting may have ceased for now, but the clock keeps ticking.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. To be continued
Netanyahu and Hezbollah aren't ready to quit.
Israel commenced new strikes on Tyre despite an ostensible truce and warnings from Washington, Tehran and Beirut. Trump questioned “does he want to continue?” when asked whether Benjamin Netanyahu should run for re-election.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s ties with Netanyahu were never smooth, but seldom have