Putting the Persian in the Gulf
Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Ukraine, Russia, Bangladesh, and the DRC.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The contours of a new strait emerge.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Netanyahu floats a veto for his voters.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A drone in Leipzig; meetings in Vienna.
BANGLADESH. Hasina seems to have overstayed her welcome.
DR CONGO. Ebola spreads faster than efforts to contain it.
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IRAN. Route of the matter
The contours of a new strait emerge.
Iran would gain control of ships entering Hormuz under a proposed deal with Oman, Reuters said Wednesday. The US had no comment, but Donald Trump told a Las Vegas rally “I’d rather make a deal because I don’t want to kill people.”
INTELLIGENCE. Should the US agree, this would be a huge concession on top of those already made in the 17 June memorandum of understanding. Iran says this MoU, signed by Trump at the Palace of Versailles, would be the basis of another 60-day interim period where the Strait is reopened while further details, including on nuclear stockpiles, are negotiated. Arab Gulf states would presumably hate it, but without defensive weapons, there’s little they can do.
FOR BUSINESS. Tehran says a deal is contingent on a lifting of sanctions and the release of funds. Washington appears to be open, having lifted sanctions on two IRGC-linked airlines overnight. There are reports of tolls of up to 7% on the value of cargoes, which could net Tehran $100 billion annually (or a third of GDP) based on pre-war volumes. Should tolls be transacted in yuan, as they did early in the conflict, this could drive RMB internationalisation.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. How to lose a deal in 60 days
Netanyahu floats a veto for his voters.
Two Israeli soldiers were killed in an IED blast in Lebanon, the IDF said Thursday, prompting retaliatory strikes and deadlock at talks in Rome. Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would counter Iran's nuclear threat irrespective of any deal.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran continues to say a deal on Hormuz requires Israel to exit