Pyrrhus of the Caribbean
Venezuela, Thailand, Cambodia, Indonesia, the DRC, Rwanda, and Somalia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
VENEZUELA. The US seizes a tanker as its strategy takes on water.
THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Anutin tells Washington to speak to the hand.
INDONESIA. Prabowo’s geopolitical hedging falls short.
DR CONGO. RWANDA. Another peace deal rapidly unravels.
SOMALIA. Regional powers circle as Trump adds insult to injury.
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VENEZUELA. Ship gets real
The US seizes a tanker as its strategy takes on water.
Pam Bondi said the US seized 1.1 million barrels of crude off Venezuela, which Caracas called “blatant theft”. Opposition leader Maria Machado arrived in Oslo to receive her Nobel. Impeachment articles were introduced against Pete Hegseth.
INTELLIGENCE. Bondi announced the seizure as an FBI, Homeland Security and Coast Guard operation “with support from the Department of War”. Whether to distract from Hegseth’s controversial “double-tap” of an alleged drug boat, or reposition herself ahead of the pending controversy of the Epstein files, the episode, like everything on Venezuela, seems to be directed by Trumpian court politics. Two US F-18 fighter jets entered then soon left Venezuelan airspace.
FOR BUSINESS. Donald Trump can easily ‘win’ against unarmed drug boats, if not Nicolas Maduro’s rickety regime, but such victories will remain Pyrrhic without a clear theory of change. The seizure may have more legal basis than killing wounded drug smugglers, but may only risk cargoes from Chevron, unless that’s the point. And without a clear link to the war against “narco-terrorists”, any further seizures may also risk raising oil prices, albeit from a low base.
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THAILAND. CAMBODIA. Missing the points
Anutin tells Washington to speak to the hand.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul dismissed Donald Trump’s pledge to phone him and end the conflict with Cambodia, saying “there must be proper appointment and agreed talking points.” Fighting took place across 16 fronts Wednesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Anutin, like at least parts of Cambodia’s leadership, is using a