Rates of attrition
Iran, the Red Sea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Israel, Ukraine, the UK, and Argentina.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump and Tehran wait to see who runs out first.
RED SEA. Iran may not need Yemen to block a second chokepoint.
PAKISTAN. AFGHANISTAN. Islamabad pauses peacemaking to return to war.
ISRAEL. UKRAINE. A stolen wheat shipment threatens fragile cooperation.
BRITAIN. ARGENTINA. As Charles visits Trump, the Nimitz drills off the Falklands.
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IRAN. Shortage circuit
Trump and Tehran wait to see who runs out first.
The White House said the US would not negotiate with Iran “through the press” and had been “clear about our red lines” amid reports Donald Trump was unhappy with a purported Iranian offer to separate nuclear talks from Hormuz access.
INTELLIGENCE. Decoupling the dual blockades from uranium enrichment negotiations won’t be easy. Both sides see control of Hormuz as the key point of leverage. Tehran boasts of Washington’s diminishing political runway. The US says Iran will run out of storage capacity for its gummed-up oil by mid-May (though this didn’t seem to be a problem during Covid). Both claim the other is seeking talks. Waiting for who’ll choke, neither is moving from current positions.
FOR BUSINESS. Both sides also claim the other is politically fractured. This may be true for Tehran, but is definitely true for Washington, irrespective of reports that JD Vance has broken ranks with Pete Hegseth over munition stockpiles. Trump has until Saturday to end the war or seek a declaration from Congress (the War Powers Act only allows a further 30-day extension to wrap things up). Oil continues to move up as more US air assets enter the region.
RED SEA. New foe, Houthis?
Iran may not need Yemen to block a second chokepoint.
A second ship was seized off Somalia Monday, a week after Mogadishu banned Israeli-linked ships from transiting the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. US drone operations in southern Somalia had decreased amid fuel shortages, local media said.
INTELLIGENCE. The Somali government in Mogadishu has no way to block Israeli